摘要翻译:
通过一个因子随机波动率模型,讨论了多元时间序列动态协方差矩阵的有效贝叶斯估计。特别地,我们提出了两种交织策略(Yu和Meng,Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics,20(3),531-570,2011)来大大加速标准MCMC方法的收敛和混合。与边缘数据增强技术类似,所提出的加速过程利用了因子模型中经常出现的不可识别性问题。我们的新交织策略易于实现,几乎没有额外的计算成本;然而,大量的仿真研究表明,它们可以将估计效率提高几个数量级。最后,我们的算法在一个26维的汇率数据集上的应用表明了新方法在现实世界数据中的优越性。
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英文标题:
《Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Factor Stochastic
Volatility Models》
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作者:
Gregor Kastner, Sylvia Fr\"uhwirth-Schnatter, Hedibert Freitas Lopes
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最新提交年份:
2017
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分类信息:
一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Computation 计算
分类描述:Algorithms, Simulation, Visualization
算法、模拟、可视化
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一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述:Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论,微观计量经济学,宏观计量经济学,通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容,统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Applications 应用程序
分类描述:Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学,教育学,流行病学,工程学,环境科学,医学,物理科学,质量控制,社会科学
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一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Methodology 方法论
分类描述:Design, Surveys, Model Selection, Multiple Testing, Multivariate Methods, Signal and Image Processing, Time Series, Smoothing, Spatial Statistics, Survival Analysis, Nonparametric and Semiparametric Methods
设计,调查,模型选择,多重检验,多元方法,信号和图像处理,时间序列,平滑,空间统计,生存分析,非参数和半参数方法
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英文摘要:
We discuss efficient Bayesian estimation of dynamic covariance matrices in multivariate time series through a factor stochastic volatility model. In particular, we propose two interweaving strategies (Yu and Meng, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 20(3), 531-570, 2011) to substantially accelerate convergence and mixing of standard MCMC approaches. Similar to marginal data augmentation techniques, the proposed acceleration procedures exploit non-identifiability issues which frequently arise in factor models. Our new interweaving strategies are easy to implement and come at almost no extra computational cost; nevertheless, they can boost estimation efficiency by several orders of magnitude as is shown in extensive simulation studies. To conclude, the application of our algorithm to a 26-dimensional exchange rate data set illustrates the superior performance of the new approach for real-world data.
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PDF链接:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.08154