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摘要翻译：
本文实证分析了欧元相对于其他货币的风险。比较了包括向完全货币联盟的最后过渡阶段的子阶段与在此之前的子阶段。在面对投机攻击时的稳定性检验使用极值理论获得尾部汇率变化的估计。调查结果令人鼓舞。欧元的共同风险衡量标准与其他货币并无重大差异。此外，面对投机压力，欧元保持稳定。例如，研究结果一致表明，欧元的风险低于日元，与德国马克有着类似的内在风险，德国马克实际上正在取代欧元。
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英文标题：
《Tail Behaviour of the Euro》
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作者：
John Cotter
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最新提交年份：
2011
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Risk Management 风险管理
分类描述：Measurement and management of financial risks in trading, banking, insurance, corporate and other applications
衡量和管理贸易、银行、保险、企业和其他应用中的金融风险
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述：Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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英文摘要：
This paper empirically analyses risk in the Euro relative to other currencies. Comparisons are made between a sub period encompassing the final transitional stage to full monetary union with a sub period prior to this. Stability in the face of speculative attack is examined using Extreme Value Theory to obtain estimates of tail exchange rate changes. The findings are encouraging. The Euro's common risk measures do not deviate substantially from other currencies. Also, the Euro is stable in the face of speculative pressure. For example, the findings consistently show the Euro being less risky than the Yen, and having similar inherent risk to the Deutsche Mark, the currency that it is essentially replacing.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1103.5418
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