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Economicsfocus
Beefed-up burgernomics
A gourmet version of the Big Mac index suggests that the yuan is not thatundervalued
Jul 30th 2011 | from the print edition
THE Big Mac index celebrates its 25th birthday this year. Invented byThe Economist in 1986 as a lighthearted guide to whether currencies are attheir “correct” level, it was never intended as a precise gauge of currencymisalignment, merely a tool to make exchange-rate theory more digestible. Yetthe Big Mac index has become a global standard, included in several economictextbooks and the subject of at least 20 academic studies. American politicianshave even cited the index in their demands for a big appreciation of theChinese yuan. With so many people taking the hamburger standard so seriously,it may be time to beef it up.
Burgernomics is based on the theory of purchasing-power parity (PPP), thenotion that in the long run exchange rates should move towards the rate thatwould equalise the prices of an identical basket of goods and services (in thiscase, a burger) in any two countries. The average price of a Big Mac in Americais $4.07; in China it is only $2.27 at market exchange rates, 44% cheaper. Inother words, the raw Big Mac index suggests that the yuan is undervalued by 44%against the dollar. In contrast, the currencies of Switzerland and Norwayappear to be overvalued by around 100%. The euro (based on a weighted averageof prices in member countries) is overvalued by 21% against the dollar;sterling is slightly undervalued; the Japanese yen seems to be spot-on. For thefirst time, we have included India in our survey. McDonald’s does not sell BigMacs there, so we have taken the price of a Maharaja Mac, made with chickeninstead of beef. Meat accounts for less than 10% of a burger’s total cost, sothis is unlikely to distort results hugely. It indicates that the rupee is 53%undervalued.
Ketchup growth
Some find burgernomics hard to swallow. Burgers cannot easily be tradedacross borders, and prices are distorted by big differences in the cost ofnon-traded local inputs such as rent and workers’ wages. The Big Mac indexsuggests that most emerging-market currencies are significantly undervalued,for instance (Brazil and Argentina are the big exceptions). But you wouldexpect average prices to be cheaper in poor countries than in rich ones becauselabour costs are lower. This is the basis of the so-called “Balassa-Samuelsoneffect”. Rich countries have much higher productivity and hence higher wages inthe traded-goods sector than poor countriesdo. Because firms compete for workers, this also pushes up wages in non-tradable
goods and services, where rich countries’productivity advantage is smaller. So average prices are cheaper in poorcountries. The top chart shows a strong positive relationship between thedollar price of a Big Mac and GDP per person
China’s average income is only one-tenth of that in America so economic theorywould suggest that its exchange rate should be below its long-run PPP (ie, therate that would leave a burger costing the same in the two countries). PPPsignals where exchange rates should be heading in the long run, as China getsricher, but it says little about today’s equilibrium rate. However, therelationship between prices and GDP per person can perhaps be used to estimatethe current fair value of a currency. The top chart shows the “line of bestfit” between Big Mac prices and GDP per person for 48 countries. The differencebetween the price predicted by the red line for each country, given its incomeper head, and its actual price offers a better guide to currency under- andovervaluation than the PPP-based “raw” index.
This alternative recipe, with its adjustment for GDP per person, indicates thatthe Brazilian real is still badly overcooked, at more
than 100% too dear
(see lower chart). The euro is 36% overvalued againstthe dollar, and our beefed-up index also throws useful light on theuncompetitiveness of some economies within the euro area. Comparing burgerprices in member countries, the adjusted Big Mac index shows that the “exchangerates” of Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal are all significantly overvaluedrelative to that of Germany. As for China, the yuan is close to its fair valueagainst the greenback on the adjusted measure, although both are undervaluedagainst many other currencies.
Super-size jubilee
In trade-weighted terms our calculations suggest that the yuan is a modest 7%undervalued, hardly grounds for a trade war. That is less than previousestimates of a 20-25% undervaluation, based on models that calculate theappreciation in the yuan needed to reduce China’s current-account surplus to amanageable level of, say, 3% of GDP. Even this surplus-based method now pointsto a smaller yuan undervaluation than it used to because China’s surplus hasshrunk. Several private-sector economists forecast that it could drop below 4%of GDP this year, down from nearly 11% in 2007. As its productivity rises overtime China must continue to allow its real exchange rate to rise (either throughcurrency appreciation or through inflation), but our new burger barometersuggests that the yuan is not hugely undervalued today.
A quarter of a century after its first grilling, burgernomics is still far fromperfect, but if adjusted for GDP per person it becomes tastier.
All the more reason to keepputting our money where our mouth is.
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