Credut Suisse_Asia Equity Strategy 2012 outlook_201112.pdf
(6.49 MB)
Focus charts and tables.................................................................................................... 2
Sector and country heat maps (bottom-up) basis.......................................................... 4
Core views: A summary of our key global calls ............................................................. 5
Global multi-asset strategy............................................................................................... 7
Global equity strategy....................................................................................................... 8
Global economics.............................................................................................................. 9
Global commodities ........................................................................................................ 10
Asia strategy: Reflation rally?........................................................................................ 11
2012 end-year MXASJ target is 527 ............................................................................... 13
Country strategy.............................................................................................................. 29
Australia: From policy inaction to policy in action? ..................................................... 31
China: From crisis to stagnancy? ................................................................................ 38
Hong Kong : Stock rather than sector selection.......................................................... 48
India : Prefer to play ‘safe’ ........................................................................................... 54
Indonesia : Gazing through the haze .......................................................................... 63
Japan : Expecting a change in trend in the second half .............................................. 71
Malaysia : Politics, politics, politics .............................................................................. 78
Pakistan : Macro and political challenges limiting upside............................................ 88
Philippines : Resiliency and beyond ......................................................................... 100
Singapore : Price-to-book drops close to 2003 SARS level...................................... 108
South Korea : Play the potential 2H12 improvement through tech and consumers . 120
Taiwan : Earnings stabilisation and upcycle in 2012 ................................................. 126
Thailand : A tale of two halves .................................................................................. 137
Sector strategy............................................................................................................... 145
Automotive : China can surprise on the upside ........................................................ 147
Banks : Remain UNDERWEIGHT, still hiding in ASEAN .......................................... 149
Basic Materials : Fundamentals yet to stabilise........................................................ 155
Healthcare : Solid growth despite macro uncertainties ............................................. 158
Gaming : Growth is normalising, but not collapsing .................................................. 163
Infrastructure : Beneficiary of potential counter-cyclical spending ........................... 165
Oil & Gas : Diamonds in the rough ............................................................................ 170
Property .................................................................................................................... 176
Technology : Investing under a challenging macro backdrop................................... 182
Telecoms : Smartphones remain the key driver, but be selective............................. 184
Transportation: Tough macro, but a leading indicator to the market........................ 188
Insurance : Strong fundamentals, but macro headwinds .......................................... 194
Country and sector valuations..................................................................................... 197
Appendix: Valuation summary.................................................................................... 198



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