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JPMORGAN Markets Driving Investors 20120203.pdf
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Januaryˇs 11% rally exceeded our bullish expectations. Will this
outperformance continue? Yes, we believe so. Low trading volumes
probably mean that investors are yet to add meaningful risk and increase
exposure to cyclical sectors. This report reviews the case for the
continuation of the rally.
刪 Globally risk premiums are high. APxJ forward P/E is 11.2x, one standard
deviation below the five-year average. Our view is that global economic
fundamentals are poor but not as poor as priced into markets. In EM, as
growth and inflation falls, policy is shifting to support growth. This
typically leads to re-rating. Our end-2012 APxJ target is 475, 10% upside.
刪 Our sector strategy to be overweight cyclicals (ex energy and commodities)
and underweight defensives is up 5% YTD. This trade is still in the early
stages, in our view (see Figure 2 ). We are changing our ASEAN call,
downgrading Indonesia to neutral and belatedly downgrading defensive
Malaysia to underweight. Please see page 19 for more on ASEAN strategy.
刪 The rally in commodities is likely to fade as investors wake up to a
slowdown in China. Steel production is down 14% from its peak.
Residential construction starts fell 42% mom in December.
刪 Technical research is yet to signal an end to the bear market
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