FT社评：人民币的自由之路

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FT社评：人民币的自由之路 英国《金融时报》 社评

北京方面的政1策制定者谈起他们实行中国资本账户自由化的意图时总是含糊其辞。上个月从中1国央1行浮现出了一份改革蓝图，但央行调查统计1司发布的调研报告又为日后否认提供了合理的说辞。不过北京将人民币贷款提供范围延伸到主要的新兴市场国家的消息则显示出，中国实际上的确没有信口雌黄。

据报道，中国1国1家开1发银行(China Development Bank)计划很快与巴西、俄罗斯、印度和南非签署协议，这些国家将根据协议以本国货币发放贷款。国开行目前主要以美元发放贷款。这是向进出口贸易以人民币结算的方向迈出的另一个坚实步伐，也是央行报告发布后的第一个动作。这一举动已经属于央1行规划的三个阶段中的第二步。第一阶段是让中国的银1行从面临压力的西方金融机构手中吸收业务。
因此，在通往人民币完全可兑换，并最终达到储备货币地位的路程上，北京显然已经启程。不过涉及国开行贷款的这个最新举动也是最容易实施的步骤之一。随着北京方面推动出口商品以人民币结算，人民币计价商品的买方为了对冲汇率风险，很快就会接受人民币融资的邀约。
其他国家应该会欢迎这一举动。新兴经济体间的贸易将会在可预见的未来成为全球经济最强劲的推动力。人民币汇率与美元挂钩的话，无论这种交易是用“红钞票”支付还是用“绿钞票”支付（分别指人民币和美元——译者注），都没关系。但如果汇率联系松动，在不涉及美国的双边贸易中，还要受到美元汇率波动的冲击，就显得很不合理。

不过这才只是很小的一步。如果这条路中国一直走到底，将会转变中国以及世界其他国家的经济现实。很快，北京方面就需要面对更加艰难的抉择——如何实行国内金融业的自由化，以及是否打开闸门，让期待叩关而入的钱潮涌进中国。这两个动作都将深深触动中1国的经济和政1治现状。北京必须谨慎行动。
美国也会受到几乎同样深刻的影响。如果北京方面迈出需要的步伐（这很不确定），最终一定取得全球储备货币地位的地位。那样美国就会失去由于别国需要美元而产生的“嚣张的特权”（exorbitant privilege）。这种变化令人痛苦，但历史显示这是实力转移的自然结果。未雨绸缪好过逆势抗拒。
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关键词：人民币 Development privilege Develop 资本账户自由化 俄罗斯 人民币 调研报告 国开行 金融时报

Beijing policymakers are coy about their intentions for liberalising China’s capital account. A blueprint for reform that emerged from the central bank last month was cast in the plausible deniability of a research report from its statistics department. But news that Beijing will extend renminbi loans to leading emerging nations suggests that China is in fact putting its money where its mouth may be.

The China Development Bank reportedly plans to strike an agreement soon with its counterparts in Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa, according to which they will make available loans denominated in their own currencies. The CDB currently lends mainly in US dollars. This is another concrete step – and the first since the PBOC paper was released – towards expanding renminbi settlement of China’s imports and exports. It even belongs to the second part of the PBOC’s three-phase proposal (the first is to have Chinese banks take business from western financial companies under strain).

So Beijing has clearly started out on the road to what could end up with full convertibility and ultimately reserve currency status. But the latest step, involving CDB loans, is also one of the easiest. As Beijing works to have exports invoiced in redbacks, buyers of renminbi-priced goods will quickly take up offers of renminbi financing to hedge against currency risk.

The rest of the world can welcome the move. Trade between emerging economies promises to be the strongest driver of global economic growth in the foreseeable future. As long as the renminbi is pegged to the dollar it matters little whether such trade is paid in red or green. But when the peg is loosened, it makes little sense for trade not involving the US to be exposed to dollar volatility.

Still, this is only a tiny step on a path that, if Beijing follows it to the end, will transform the economic realities of both China and the rest of the world. Soon enough, Beijing will face the much harder decisions on how to liberalise finance at home and whether to open the dams to a flood of money waiting to wash across the border. Both could be deeply disruptive of China’s economy and politics. Beijing must proceed with caution.

Almost as deeply affected is the US. If Beijing makes the required leaps – a big if – global reserve currency status is eventually there for the taking. The US would lose the “exorbitant privilege” from others’ need for dollars. That may hurt, but history shows it is a natural outcome of power shifts. It is better to prepare than to resist.

确实需要慢慢来进行！