The World our Grandchildren Will Inherit: The Rights Revolution and Beyond

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1 论文标题
The World our Grandchildren Will Inherit: The Rights Revolution and Beyond2 作者信息
Daron Acemoglu3 出处和链接（比如，NBER working paper No.11000）
NBER Working Paper No. 17994
Issued in April 2012
NBER Program(s):   DAE

4 摘要
Following on Keynes’s Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren, this paper develops conjectures about the world we will leave to our grandchildren. It starts by outlining the 10 most important trends that have defined our economic, social, and political lives over the last 100 years. It then provides a framework for interpreting these trends, emphasizing the role of the expansion of political and civil rights and institutional changes in this process. It then uses this framework for extrapolating these 10 trends into the next 100 years.


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关键词：Revolution Evolution Children Rights Beyond 论文 信息 Beyond

The expansion of China’s economy over the last three decades is another example of growth
produced by extractive institutions, but with a major difference. The onset of technology without
borders has meant that the extent and pace of growth under extractive institutions can be greater today
than it was in the 19th century, when Germany and Russia went through a process of catch‐up. Though
the two countries reached higher growth rates than the leading economies of the time, the U.S. and the
U.K., their expansions ended quickly, and had been only made possible by deep‐rooted changes in the
structure of society — changes that ultimately destabilized and upended the regimes in those nations.
By contrast, China has been able to achieve rapid catch‐up growth for over three decades, with much
more limited threats to its extractive institutions, partly because the nature of technology has changed.
In Germany and Russia at the end of the 19th century (or in Japan and South Korea during the second
half of the 20th century) catch‐up growth involved developing industries, building a domestic market,
and undergoing a process of structural, social, and institutional changes — including rapid urbanization
and the social and political demands coming with industrialization. But unlike China, their growth wasn't
built on simply importing technology to produce goods for the world market. In contrast, today, instead
of having to develop an entire industry, an emerging market economy can just house some of an
industry’s tasks, such as assembly and operation. This has enabled China to grow rapidly by leveraging
its cheap and abundant labor force, while also mollifying the internal demands for political changes that
earlier societies undergoing catch‐up growth had to contend with.

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