发帖
雷达卡
Illustration: Sun Ying
Recently the pessimistic arguments that China faces economic stagnation have been looming again. As an important driver of global growth, China's economy is now tied tightly to the global economy, and people worldwide have strong expectations of China. Meanwhile, external observers naturally put on political-tinted lens when they look at China's economy.
At the moment, the global economy is facing challenges in a transformative period, and so is the Chinese economy. China's own economic problems, interweaved with global economic problems, make the prospects of the Chinese economy even more uncertain. Predicting China's economic future is a popular but tricky pastime.
In fact, the global economy is in a re-balancing process, and so is the Chinese economy. Each country has its own economic problems. The developed economies may have no fewer difficulties than China does.
The latest concerns toward Chinese economy are not worries that China's economic express will suddenly brake. The Chinese government has set this year's growth target at 7.5 percent, whereas most financial organizations expect a growth rate between 8.2 percent and 8.8 percent, which apparently surpasses China's own target. Many Western economists also believe the Chinese economy won't suffer a hard landing.
The latest round of concerns largely stems from worries over the difficult transformation of Chinese economy. On the one hand, sustaining fast growth can safeguard economic transformation, but it can also make transformation harder, because such measures will make it more difficult for local decision-makers to change the existing model of growth.
On the other hand, slowing down development will bring lots of complicated economic and social problems, and turn transformative problems into political ones. As a result, choosing the way of economic transformation means undertaking not only economic, but also political risks.
Recently I visited South China's Yunnan Province, where real estate still serves as the main fuel for the local economy. In some medium-sized cities, real estate advertisements are everywhere. In some small cities, there are many empty villa complexes. Even at the center of the ancient town of Lijiang, one can find sales offices for new buildings.
It can be imagined that if real estate markets seriously cool down, the economy, especially employment, in these cities would inevitably be critically stricken, and social stability would be endangered.
However, if we continue to rely on real estate to fuel the economy, more conflicts will accumulate, and such growth has no sustainability at all.
Such a dilemma tests national political skills rather than the Chinese economy. Solving it is more like solving a complicated political issue. Everyone knows it is vital to reshape the engine of economic growth. But this is easier said than done. To realize such a goal, a strong political drive and foundation, as well as determination, strength and vision, are needed.
A country's development and stability depends on whether it can find through reform the most proper route that suits its own situation. In this process, the greater a range of vision a country has, the greater drive and fewer troubles it will get.
Perhaps, only after we really begin to see problems in economic transformation from a political perspective, can we fully understand what kind of great transformation China is experiencing, and how important it is to have political vision and decisiveness for such transformation.
If China, with all its size and scope, can accomplish a splendid transformation of its economic structure and realize sustainable growth, this will have unprecedented meaning. Through this process, China will come up with a growth model which is not only economic, but has political significance.
The author is a senior editor with People's Daily. He is now stationed at Bangkok. dinggang@globaltimes.com.cn
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
