美国联储会的大幅度降息是害怕的表现还是负责任的表现？

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WALL STREET had been hoping for it. By some measures, financial markets had been half-expecting it. But when America's central bankers on September 18th cut the short-term federal-funds rate by half a percentage point, to 4.75%, investors reacted as gleefully as children who spy a chocolate birthday cake.
美国华尔街曾经希望得到降息。根据一些分析，金融市场仅希望得到一半。但是当美国中央银行在9月18日的会议上将短期联邦资金利率消减0.5%，降至4.75%时，投资人的反应就像小孩子偷看到生日巧克力蛋糕那样兴奋。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up 336 points—a 2.51% gain, and the biggest one-day jump since April 2003. The broader S&P index rose 2.9%. Wall Street's giddier commentators could hardly contain themselves “I would hug these guys” gushed Jim Cramer, a CNBC pundit whose screaming pleas for lower interest rates epitomised August's panic.
道琼斯工业指数那天上升了336点，或上升了2.51%，这是从2003年4月来最大的单天升幅。范围更广的S&P斯坦普指数上升了 2.9%。华尔街上那些发晕的评论员也张口结舌了，CNBC那博学的吉姆.克莱默泉涌般的说“我真想拥抱这些人”，他那疯狂般的呼声要求降息是8月恐慌的代表。

The Fed's move came a day after Britain's government announced it would guarantee all deposits at the stricken mortgage lender, Northern Rock, and the day that Lehman Brothers reported third-quarter results that were not as bad as many had feared (see article).
在联储会的降息的前一天，英国政府宣布要担保那受挫的房贷银行--北石--的所有存款，而降息那天，莱曼兄弟公司宣布其第三季报表，情况没有像人们想象的那么糟糕（见文）。

A day later the Bank of England abandoned its hard-nosed attitude to greasing the money markets (see article). America's housing regulators also did an about-turn, announcing that they would allow the government-sponsored mortgage giants, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to expand their portfolios to help alleviate the mortgage squeeze.
在降息后那一天，英国中央银行抛弃其顽固派立场，给货币市场加了点油（见文）。美国房屋监管机构也大转向，宣布他们将准许政府资助的房贷巨头，房利美及房地美，扩展他们的投资组合以帮助减缓房贷紧缩。

This barrage of good news worked a treat. Stock markets across the globe followed Wall Street upwards. Nerves calmed in the money markets and the most moribund corners of the credit landscape showed signs of life. Banks became more willing to lend to each other. Blue-chip borrowers raised billions of dollars of new debt. Even the junk-bond market began to function. R.H. Donnelley, the firm that publishes Yellow Pages, raised far more than the $650m it had planned in the first junk-bond issue of any size since late July.
这么一大堆好消息就像盛宴一样。全球股票市场跟着华尔街一起上升。货币市场的紧张气氛也得到缓解，而那最死气沉沉的信贷角落也再次显现了生气。银行也变得更愿意借钱给其他银行了。蓝筹公司也筹集了几十亿新债务。甚至垃圾债券市场也开始工作了。出版电话黄页的R.H. Donnelley公司计划筹集6.5亿美金，结果大大超出其计划，而这也是自7月来发行的第一个垃圾债券。

To many on Wall Street, all this marked a turning point for which Mr Bernanke, in particular, deserves credit. Not only had the Fed recognised the risks that financial turbulence posed to America's economy, it had acted boldly to head them off. And that, concluded euphoric investors, would probably mean even lower interest rates ahead. Judging by the price of Fed funds' futures, financial markets reckon there is an 80% probability of another quarter-point cut on October 31st.
对于华尔街的许多人来讲，所有这些都是转折点的标志，而这特别应该归功于伯南克。联储会不仅仅是认识到金融风暴给美国经济带来的风险，联储会还勇于采取行动，给其迎面打击。并且，那些兴高采烈的投资人的结论是今后还可能有降息可能存在。通过观察联邦资金（利率）期货价格，金融市场估计有80%的可能联储会在10月31日的会议上还会降0.25%息。

Not everyone was happy, however. Hawks worried that the Fed had bailed out Wall Street and compromised its inflation-fighting credentials. Far from eschewing the “Greenspan put” (Wall Street shorthand for the willingness of Alan Greenspan to cut interest rates in the face of financial turmoil), his successor, Mr Bernanke, had created a put of his own. Allan Meltzer, author of a history of the Federal Reserve, called the decision a “big error”. The central bankers, he argued, had “listened to the Siren song” of the markets. History suggested they would regret it.
但是，并不是所有人都高兴。那些鹰派担心联储会挽救了华尔街，而毁坏了其对付通胀的信誉。虽然没有照抄“格林斯潘对策”（华尔街将格林斯潘在金融危机时会同意消减利率的简称），格林斯潘的继承人伯南克已经创造了他自己的对策。写联储会历史的作家Allan Meltzer将这降息决定称为“大错误”。他说，中央银行的官员们是受到华尔街的“蛊惑”（听了华尔街那种有诱惑性的歌？）。历史将证明他们会感到后悔。

Several measures of inflationary jitters wobbled: the price of gold futures hit a 27-year high of $735.50 an ounce and yields on 30-year Treasury bonds rose. The dollar continued to slide, hitting a new low against the euro of close to 1.40. Mr Greenspan himself gave ammunition to the inflation worriers. His memoirs (see article) argued that the disinflationary pressures of the past were ebbing and central bankers' jobs were becoming harder.
各种担忧通胀的数据一个个浮现：黄金期货价格达到每盎司735.3美金，这是 27年来的高点，30年联邦债券回报也在上升。美金继续下降，对欧元达到1.40，这是新低。格林斯潘自己也给了那些担心通胀人士一些弹药。在他的回忆录（见文）提到过去那些非通胀压力也层出不穷，而中央银行官员的工作也更艰难了。

Look carefully, however, and both Wall Street's euphoria and the hawks' nervousness are overdone. Inflation is always a risk, but the Fed is hardly in danger of allowing price pressures to get out of control. Figures released on September 19th showed that core consumer prices, excluding food and fuel, rose by 2.1% in the year to August, down from 2.2% in the year to July.
然而，如果仔细观察，华尔街上颂歌派及那些强硬派的担忧都有些过度。通胀风险永远存在，但是联储会让价格压力失控的风险几乎不存在。9月19日报告的数据表明核心消费者价格指数，当去掉食品及燃料影响后，今年至8月仅增加了2.1%，比7月报出的2.2%要低。

What is more, although the central bankers' actions were bold—in addition to cutting the federal funds rate, they also cut the discount rate by half a percentage point to 5.25%—monetary policy is hardly easy. One rule of thumb is to compare nominal interest rates to nominal GDP. At 4.75%, the Fed funds rate is now roughly in line with nominal GDP growth over the past few quarters, suggesting that interest rates are broadly neutral.
再者，虽然中央银行的动作很大胆---在消减联邦资金利率之外，他们还将贴现率消减了0.5%，降至5.25%---这是少有的宽松货币政策。凭经验，我们知道可以将名义利率与名义GDP进行比较。目前4.75%的联邦资金利率与过去几个季度的名义GDP增长大致相符。这意味着利率在广义上呈中性。

Perhaps most importantly, the central bankers left themselves plenty of room for manoeuvre. The statement accompanying the Fed's decision made clear that the rate cut was intended to “help forestall” the adverse effects on the economy from financial-market disruptions. But it made no commitment that more cuts would be coming. The central bankers said they would act “as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth”. And this statement (unlike the previous one on August 17th) included an explicit reference to “inflation risks.”
更重要的也许是，中央银行的官员给他们自己更大回旋余地。在联储会决定宣布时的报告表明这次利率下降是要“先发制人”，抵消由于金融市场的动荡对经济造成的负面影响。但是联储会并没有确定是否会继续降息。中央银行的官员讲他们将“在稳定价格及保持持续经济增长有必要时”进行动作。并且这一报告（与8月17日的报告不同）明确提出了“通胀风险”。

Much depends on what drove the Fed's decision. Tactics may have played a role, particularly a desire to avoid a repeat of September 1998. After Russia's default and the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management, a hedge fund, the Fed cut rates by a quarter point. Disappointed, markets plunged and the central bankers were rattled into cutting rates again long before their next scheduled meeting. By acting boldly now, Mr Bernanke must hope to avoid hasty inter-meeting cuts.
很多因素使得联储会的做出这一决定。策略是一个因素，特别是要避免重复1998年9月失误的愿望。当俄国破产，并使对冲基金，长期资金管理公司倒闭时，联储会仅降息0.25%。由于失望，市场大幅下降，而联储会只得现身，在计划会议前就再次降息。这次的大胆行动，伯南克肯定是希望避免那种在会间突然降息的举动。

Risk management undoubtedly played a part too. Even if the most likely outcome for the economy has not worsened dramatically, the risks of a truly nasty downturn have risen. A bold cut now was probably designed, in part, to reduce those risks.

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