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http://www.salon.com/2013/07/08/how_%E2%80%9Cecon_101%E2%80%9D_is_killing_america/
Econ 101 is killing AmericaForget the dumbed-down garbage most economists spew. Their myths are causing tragic results for everyday AmericansROBERT ATKINSON AND MICHAEL LIND
In the Middle Ages, people looked to the Church for certainty. In today’s complex, market-based economies, they look to the field of economics, at least for answers to questions concerning the economy. And unlike some disciplines, which acknowledge that there’s a huge gap between the scholarly knowledge and policy advice, economists have been anything but shy about asserting their authority.
As we can see from the current dismal state of economic affairs, economies are incredibly complex systems, and policymakers who are forced to act in the face of this uncertainty and complexity want guidance. And over the last half century, neoclassical economists have not only been more than happy to offer it, but largely been able to marginalize any other disciplines or approaches, giving them a virtual monopoly on economic policy advice.
But there are two big problems with this. First, despite economists’ calming assurances, we still know little about how economies actually work and the effect of policies. If we did, then economists should have sounded the alarm bells to head off the financial collapse and Great Recession. But even more problematic, even though most economists know better, they present to the public, the media and politicians a simplified, vulgar version of neoclassical economics — what can be called Econ 101 — that leads policymakers astray. Economists fear that if they really expose policymakers to all the contradictions, uncertainties and complications of “Advanced Econ,” the latter will go off track — embracing protectionism, heavy-handed “industrial policy” or even socialism. In fact, the myths of Econ 101 already lead policymakers dangerously off track, with tragic results for the economy and everyday Americans.
Myth 1: Economics is a science.
The way economists maintain stature in public policy circles is to present their discipline as a science, akin to physics. In Econ 101, there is no uncertainty, only the obvious truths embedded in supply and demand curves. As noted economist Lionel Robbins wrote, “Economics is the science which studies human behavior as a relationship between given ends and scarce means, which have alternative uses.” If economics is actually a science, then policymakers can feel more comfortable following the advice of economists. But if economics is really a science – which implies only one answer to a particular question — why do 40 percent of surveyed economists agree that raising the minimum wage would make it harder for people to get jobs while 40 percent disagree? It’s because as Larry Lindsey, former head of President Bush’s National Economic Council, admitted, “the continuing argument [among economists] is a product of philosophical disagreements about human nature and the role of government and cannot be fully resolved by economists no matter how sound their data.”
Myth 2: The goal of economic policy is maximizing efficiency.
Economists have one overarching principle that shapes their advice: maximize “efficiency.” As economist and venture investor William Janeway notes, “Efficiency is the virtue of economics.” But the goal of economic policy should not be to maximize static efficiency (the “right” allocation of widgets), but to create inefficiency — in the sense of disruptive innovation that makes widgets worthless. For it is the development of new widgets and better ways to make them (e.g., innovation), rather than efficiently allocating existing widgets, that drives prosperity. As noted “innovation” economist Joseph Schumpeter pointed out: “A system which is efficient in the static sense at every point in time can be inferior to a system which is never efficient in this sense, because the reason for its static inefficiency can be the driver for its long-term performance.”
Myth 3: The economy is a market.
In the world of Econ 101, “the economy” is usually treated as a synonym for “the market.” But an enormous amount of economic activity takes place outside of competitive markets dominated by for-profit, private firms.
In the industrial nations of the OECD, government spending at all levels on average accounted for 46 percent before the Great Recession. Even in capitalist countries, the government is usually the largest employer, and the largest consumer of goods and services in areas like defense, education and infrastructure. Other non-market sectors responsible for goods and services production include the household (your chores are economic activity too, even if Econ 101 ignores them) and nonprofits like religious institutions, colleges and universities, charities and think tanks like ours. Markets, then, account for around half of a modern nation’s economic activity — maybe less, if uncounted household production is as big a part of the real economy as some have claimed.
Myth 4: Prices reflect value.
If the economy is a market, prices are what allow goods and services to be efficiently allocated. In Econ 101, because prices are set in “free markets,” the price of something must be a reflection of its real value. This principle — known as the efficient market hypothesis — was the reason why, when in the run-up to the Great Recession real house prices increased 40 percent (a more than seven-fold increase from decades prior), virtually no economist sounded the alarm, precisely because those higher prices must have reflected higher value. This is why Ben Bernanke stated in 2005 that rising home prices “largely reflect strong economic fundamentals” and Fed chairman Alan Greenspan assured us that, “It doesn’t appear likely that a national housing bubble, which could pop and send prices tumbling, will develop.” Had economists not been in the grip of the efficient market hypothesis, they would have realized that something was seriously amiss and helped rein in lending to reduce the bubble and subsequent collapse. But if they tell policymakers that prices don’t always reflect value, then the entire foundation of Econ 101 starts to crumble.
Myth 5: All profitable activities are good for the economy.
Another axiom of Econ 101 is the assumption that all profitable activities are good for the economy: After all, Adam Smith “proved” that pursuit of self-interest maximizes economic welfare. To be sure, even Econ 101 would recognize that societies use legal penalties to discourage economic transactions like prostitution and drug use that are considered immoral, to say nothing of Mafia contract killing.
But the version of Econ 101 familiar to most politicians and pundits ignores the distinction between productive activities (e.g., making useful appliances or lifesaving vaccines) and pure rents (profiting from real estate appreciation, stock manipulation or the accident of owning mineral deposits that become more valuable). If the greatest fortunes are to be made in financial arbitrage, gambling in real estate or exploiting crony-capitalist political connections, the argument that private profit-seeking maximizes economic welfare and the public good is undermined.
Myth 6: Monopolies and oligopolies are always bad because they distort prices.
In the abstract universe of Econ 101, monopolies and oligopolies are always bad because they distort prices. Here populism, often opposed to neoclassical economics, is allied with it. The neoclassical vision of the normal economy with multiple small yeoman producers resonates with Jeffersonian antitrust policy, with its suspicion that all large enterprises must be conspiracies against the public.
In the real world, things are not that simple. Academic economics includes a well-developed literature about imperfect markets. But it is reserved for advanced students and is never encountered by those who are told only the simplicities of Econ 101. In manufacturing industries with increasing returns to scale, like semiconductor or airplane production, markets characterized by a few large producers are usually more productive and innovative than ones with many small producers. The same is usually true in industries characterized by network effects, like railroads or communications infrastructures such as wired or wireless broadband. And as Joseph Schumpeter pointed out, temporary monopolies based on technological innovation are not only beneficial but are key enablers of seeding further innovation — particularly if the “innovation rents” or super-profits are funneled back into R&D.
Myth 7: Low wages are good for the economy.
According to Econ 101, high wages are bad for an economy and low wages are a blessing. James Dorn of the libertarian Cato Institute declares that higher wages, by causing less demand for workers, mean that “unemployment will increase … No legislator has ever overturned the law of demand.” High-wage countries, we are told, price themselves out of a supposed global labor market. And in the non-traded domestic service sector in which most Americans work, a higher minimum wage, Econ 101 claims, would lead to permanent higher unemployment.
When it comes to traded goods and services, this ignores the effects of relative currency values being the major determinant of prices of exports and imports. It also ignores the fact that high-wage workers who are highly productive, thanks to their machines and skills, can produce more cheaply than poorly paid workers with inferior technologies and skills. According to the Asian Development Bank, most of the high-value-added components of iPhones, which are assembled in China, actually come from high-wage nations like Germany, Japan, South Korea and the U.S. Michael E. Porter and Jan Rivkin state flatly in the Harvard Business Review: “Low American wages do not boost competitiveness,” which they define to mean that “companies operating in the U.S. are able to compete successfully in the global economy while supporting high and rising living standards for the average American …” The countries that beat the U.S. in the latest competitiveness rankings by the World Economic Forum are all high-wage nations: Switzerland, Singapore, Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands and Germany.
In industries that cannot be outsourced, labor is only one of several factors of production that can be substituted for one another. Writing in defense of low-wage immigrant farmworker programs in the progressive magazine Mother Jones, Kevin Drum claims: “Most Americans just aren’t willing to do backbreaking agricultural labor for a bit above minimum wage, and if the wage rate were much higher the farms would no longer be competitive.” But if American farmworkers were paid better, then U.S. agribusiness would have an incentive to cut costs using technology, like automated tomato picking machines, as the agricultural sectors of Japan, Australia and other high-wage nations have done. While transitional unemployment as a result of innovation always has to be dealt with, the effects of high wages in encouraging investment in labor-saving technology should be welcomed, not deplored.
Myth 8: “Industrial policy” is bad.
Myth 9: The best tax code is one that doesn’t pick winners.
Myth 10: Trade is always win-win.
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