楼主: littlepig
24163 60

[行为经济学] 2004行为微观经济学(行为公司金融)讨论会材料 [推广有奖]

21
liangliang 发表于 2004-11-11 22:17:00 |只看作者 |坛友微信交流群

修改中

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-11-16 23:26:24编辑过]

使用道具

22
一刹春 发表于 2004-11-11 22:22:00 |只看作者 |坛友微信交流群
看起来这个行为微观的讨论会比行为宏观开展得要规范。
与其平淡地活着,不如用死亡搏一次无法遗忘的传说。

使用道具

23
jlrd 发表于 2004-11-11 23:22:00 |只看作者 |坛友微信交流群
可能宏观大牌太多,彼此都怕轻易献丑.

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-11-12 2:05:26编辑过]

但使龙城飞将在,不教胡马度阴山.

使用道具

24
闲人 发表于 2004-11-12 08:01:00 |只看作者 |坛友微信交流群
呵呵,初生牛犊不畏虎哦,当心一刹春找一班尼姑修理你
面对渐渐忘却历史的人们,我一直尽力呼喊!

使用道具

25
jlrd 发表于 2004-11-12 16:48:00 |只看作者 |坛友微信交流群

哈哈,岂非正和我意.

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-11-14 0:09:13编辑过]

但使龙城飞将在,不教胡马度阴山.

使用道具

26
liangliang 发表于 2004-11-16 23:31:00 |只看作者 |坛友微信交流群

《股利的消失与出现》读书笔记

Malcolm Bakera, Jeffrey Wurglerb, 2003

摘要:在股利支付倾向的波动和迎合激励的波动之间存在紧密联系。首先用Fama and French的研究方法把1963年到2000年间支付股利情况划分为四个不同的趋势。然后,证明每个变动趋势与相应的迎合激励的变动是相联系的:当股票市场的股利升水这一代理变量为正时,股利支付倾向开始增加,反之,才开始递减。这种关系的唯一的中断是由于尼克松短期新政时期对上市公司支付股利的管制引起的。

主要方法:选择样本数据,构造方程进行回归分析;非样本检测。

论文的主要内容

用迎合激励(上市公司对于投资者关于股利的需求所做出的反应)解释1963年到2000年间的股利的消失与出现现象。

(1)1963年到2000年间股利支付的变动情况:运用Fama and French研究方法。根据公司本身的一些数据特征来判断其是否具有支付能力(预期的股利支付者)。实际的股利支付者占总样本数的百分比与预期的股利支付者占总样本数的百分比,这两者之差就是股利支付倾向。具体描绘在了图1中。从图中可以看出股利支付变动非常明显:两次出现、两次消失。(2)迎合激励:用股利升水这一变量来衡量迎合激励。把1963年到2000年间的股利升水情况描绘在股利支付倾向变化的图形中,可以看出(除了尼克松短期新政期间外)股利支付倾向的变化是由股利升水的变化引起的。把股利升水作为解释变量,尼克松控制作为定性变量,股利支付倾向的变动作为应变量,建立回归模型分别对1963-1977期间样本数据和1963-2000样本数据的回归,证明上述结论是正确的。进一步,也能说明尼克松对上市公司股利支付的控制能降低支付倾向的变动。同时,运用非样本检测迎合激励也可以解释1978年后股利消失的原因(表2)。

3)投资者对股利支付者以及不支付者的需求。改变代理变量运用同样的回归方法进行回归,发现除股利升水外的代理变量都不能解释股利支付倾向的变动。详尽的研究《纽约时代》上关于股利的文章(表4),得出结论:在明显的繁荣时期,对于成长股票,股息升水为负并且股利倾向于消失,而在萧条后,股息升水开始上升并且股利会重新出现。这也与股利的变动趋势相吻合。

主要结论:在股利支付倾向的波动和迎合激励的波动之间存在紧密联系,尼克松短期新政时期对上市公司支付股利的管制致使股利支付倾向的变动滞后。

联系:Fama and French曾对1926-1999美国上市公司股利政策的历史变化做出详尽的研究,指出 1999年美国发放现金股利的公司急剧减少是由于上市公司的特性发生了变化:低收益性、高成长性的小公司所占比重越来越大,它们更趋向于不发放现金股利。

[此贴子已经被作者于2004-11-16 23:32:45编辑过]

使用道具

27
littlepig 发表于 2004-11-17 08:42:00 |只看作者 |坛友微信交流群

行为经济学2004年第二学期第三、四期讨论论文目录:

所有人必看:

3146.rar (39.98 KB) 本附件包括:

  • Thler行为经济学.pdf
BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS Sendhil Mullainathan, MIT & NBER Richard Thaler, UChicago & NBER Working Paper 00-27 September 2000

这是行为经济学创业者之一的Thaler和后起之秀 Mullainathan共同撰写的一篇关于行为经济学的入门文献,便于大家今后讨论有一个共同基础。前者是芝加哥大学商学院的金融学掌门人,是通过和早期泰斗Fama竞争才获取今天的地位。后者是行为经济学的新锐,现在被哈佛大学经济学系挖到手。

每个人分别看:

3147.rar (507.73 KB) 本附件包括:

  • 高管过度自信和公司投资.pdf
CEO OVERCONFIDENCE AND CORPORATE INVESTMENT Ulrike Malmendier Geoffrey Tate Working Paper 10807 http://www.nber.org/papers/w10807 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 September 2004

ABSTRACT We argue that managerial overconfidence can account for corporate investment distortions. Overconfident managers overestimate the returns to their investment projects and view external funds as unduly costly. Thus, they overinvest when they have abundant internal funds, but curtail investment when they require external financing. We test the overconfidence hypothesis, using panel data on personal portfolio and corporate investment decisions of Forbes 500 CEOs. We classify CEOs as overconfident if they persistently fail to reduce their personal exposure to company-specific risk. We find that investment of overconfident CEOs is significantly more responsive to cash flow, particularly in equity-dependent firms.

3148.rar (157.74 KB) 本附件包括:

  • 股利迎合.pdf
A Catering Theory of Dividends

MALCOLM BAKER and JEFFREY WURGLER

ABSTRACT We propose that the decision to pay dividends is driven by prevailing investor demand for dividend payers. Managers cater to investors by paying dividends when investors put a stock price premium on payers, and by not paying when investors prefer nonpayers. To test this prediction, we construct four stock price-based measures of investor demand for dividend payers. By each measure, nonpayers tend to initiate dividends when demand is high. By some measures, payers tend to omit dividends when demand is low. Further analysis confirms that these results are better explained by catering than other theories of dividends.

3149.rar (517.02 KB) 本附件包括:

  • 行为金融模型中的泡沫和危机.pdf
BUBBLES AND CRASHES IN A BEHAVIOURAL FINANCE MODEL PAUL DE GRAUWE MARIANNA GRIMALDI CESIFO WORKING PAPER NO. 1194 CATEGORY 6: MONETARY POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL FINANCE MAY 2004

Abstract We develop a simple model of the exchange rate in which agents optimize their portfolio and use different forecasting rules. They check the profitability of these rules ex post and select the more profitable one. This model produces two kinds of equilibria, a fundamental and a bubble one. In a stochastic environment the model generates a complex dynamics in which bubbles and crashes occur at unpredictable moments. We contrast these "behavioural" bubbles with "rational" bubbles.

马尔代夫真的很好玩耶,麦麦

使用道具

28
littlepig 发表于 2004-11-17 08:49:00 |只看作者 |坛友微信交流群

3150.rar (158.68 KB) 本附件包括:

  • 规范和企业理论.pdf
Oliver Hart

May 2001 Harvard University Norms and the Theory of the Firm

Most standard models of incentives and/or organizations assume that economic agents are self-interested and must rely on formal contracts enforced by the courts to uphold their relationships. In reality, of course, many economic transactions are sustained by self-enforcing (“implicit”) contracts, or norms of behavior, such as honesty or trust. An interesting question to ask is, does ignoring norms/self-enforcing contracts lead to misleading conclusions? That is, would a theory of incentives or organizations that incorporated norms look very different from the standard theory?

3151.rar (182.52 KB) 本附件包括:

  • 合伙企业、声誉和人力资本.pdf
Partnership Firms, Reputation, and Human Capital Forthcoming, American Economic Review Alan D. Morrison Saïd Business School and Merton College, University of Oxford.

William J. Wilhelm, Jr.

McIntire School of Commerce, University of Virginia; Saïd Business School, University of Oxford.

This version: March, 2004

Abstract In human capital intensive industries where it is difficult to contract upon the training effort of skilled agents a socially suboptimal level of training may occur. We show how partnership organisations can overcome this problem by tying human and financial capital. Partnerships are illiquid and partners must stay with the firm until clients discover their type and update the firm’s reputation. This renders unskilled agents, who will adversely affect reputation, unwilling to accept partnerships. Skilled agents therefore train the next generation so as to ensure that there is an adequate market for their own shares. We comment upon the salient differences between partnerships and joint stock firms.

3153.rar (282.5 KB) 本附件包括:

  • 行为经济学和管制.pdf
REGULATION FOR CONSERVATIVES: BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS AND THE CASE FOR “ASYMMETRIC PATERNALISM” COLIN CAMERER, SAMUEL ISSACHAROFF, GEORGE LOEWENSTEIN, TED O’DONOGHUE, AND MATTHEW RABIN

In this paper, we are concerned with a third form of regulation: paternalistic regulations that are designed to help on an individual basis. Paternalism treads on consumer sovereignty by forcing, or preventing, choices for the individual’s own good, much as when parents limit their child’s freedom to skip school or eat candy for dinner. Recent research in behavioral economics has identified a variety of decision- making errors that may expand the scope of paternalistic regula-tion. To the extent that the errors identified by behavioral research lead people not to behave in their own best interests, paternalism may prove useful. But, to the extent that paternalism prevents people from behaving in their own best interests, paternalism may prove costly.

3154.rar (264.59 KB) 本附件包括:

  • 行为经济学和证监会.pdf
Behavioral Economics and the SEC Stephen J. Choi University of California, Berkeley Adam C. Pritchard Georgetown University; University of Michigan at Ann Arbor

USC Center for Law, Economics & Organization CLEO Research Paper No. C03-6 University of Michigan Law and Economics Research Paper No. 03-002 Georgetown University Law and Economics Research Paper No. 389560 University of California, Berkeley Public Law Research Paper No. 115

Instead of attempting to determine when the behavioral biases of regulators outweigh those within the market, we take a different tactic. Because behaviorally flawed (and possibly self-interested) regulators themselves will decide whether market-based biases outweigh regulatory biases, we propose a framework for assessing such regulatory intervention. Our framework varies along two dimensions. The more monopolistic the regulator (such as the SEC), the greater is the presumption against intervention to correct for biases in the market. Monopolistic regulatory agencies provide a fertile environment for behavioral biases to flourish. Second, the more regulations supplant market decisionmaking, the greater is the presumption against such regulations. Market supplanting regulations are particularly prone to entrenchment, making reversal difficult once such regulations have become part of the status quo.

马尔代夫真的很好玩耶,麦麦

使用道具

29
闲人 发表于 2004-11-17 09:13:00 |只看作者 |坛友微信交流群
小猪啊,你布置任务才来,以前承诺共同管理的。
面对渐渐忘却历史的人们,我一直尽力呼喊!

使用道具

30
littlepig 发表于 2004-11-17 09:15:00 |只看作者 |坛友微信交流群

以前不是给你老兄创造一个独舞环境嘛,既然你现在太忙,我就援个手。不来我的手下供你驱使得很多了

马尔代夫真的很好玩耶,麦麦

使用道具

您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 我要注册

本版微信群
加JingGuanBbs
拉您进交流群

京ICP备16021002-2号 京B2-20170662号 京公网安备 11010802022788号 论坛法律顾问:王进律师 知识产权保护声明   免责及隐私声明

GMT+8, 2024-4-20 02:42