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Macro View: Stability Sets In
As spring sets in, recent evidence of a gradual normalization in US economic momentum has offered some relief after a volatile winter. Although not all data are positive, we expect recent momentum to persist. Similarly, overall signals from the euro zone seem consistent with a stable growth outlook, though relatively weak new orders raise an element of caution.
Meanwhile, in China the government's apparent intention to put a floor under, but not pump up, activity reaffirms our view that, although near-term growth momentum has troughed, any seasonal bounce is likely to be a mild one.
China-sensitive industrial commodities – notably copper and iron ore – are therefore likely to trade in their ranges for a little longer before the lack of a more substantial demand pick-up dovetails with strong supply growth to put prices under downward pressure once again by Q3.
CS-commodity advantage.pdf
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