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Aerospace & Defence
Global 2007 Outlook & Directory
• Commercial aircraft orders beat consensus expectations significantly in 2006. We are
positive on the cycle and the order outlook for 2007. We favour Boeing over Airbus
because of its product portfolio, currency pressures and reinvestment requirements.
• Defence spending is close to a 50-year peak in real terms and we expect to see slowing
defence spending growth 2007–2010. However, we expect war funding and Army
upgrade activity to maintain good support. We also expect a pick-up in export markets.
• Globally in civil aerospace we are positive on Boeing and Embraer, and negative on
EADS and Bombardier, or would play the cycle through the suppliers (Precision
Castparts, BE Aerospace, Rolls-Royce or Meggitt).
• In defence, we favour small/mid-caps (Armor Holdings and DCP) for Army/war funding
exposure or European defence companies (BAE Systems, Chemring or Finmeccanica)
for export market potential. We are cautious on the US prime contractors.
Commercial Aerospace: The ICAO forecasts traffic growth of 5.8% for 2007 and 5.6% for
2008 (6.1% in 2006), which should drive steady capacity and aftermarket growth. It also sees
the global airline industry making its first net profit (of US$1.9bn) since 2000 (after losses of
US$41.4bn from 2001 to 2006). Commercial aircraft orders surprised positively in 2006 at
1,834 (Boeing 1,044, Airbus 790), compared with consensus at around 1,200. We see
commercial aircraft deliveries rising 10% to 914 in 2007 then to 975 in 2008 and 1,020 in 2009
and largely flat in 2010. We see a more favourable mix at Boeing compared with Airbus.
Aircraft development execution is likely to be in focus in 2007 (notably on A400M and B787).
Regional & Business Jets: We believe that regional jet orders in 2007 could be better than in
2006, however, consolidation in the US airline sector could have a negative impact. We remain
of the belief that Embraer is better positioned in the market owing to its superior product line
vis-à-vis Bombardier, a stance borne out by market share statistics over the past two years.
With respect to business jets, demand remains strong, although we believe we are at or
nearing the peak of the order cycle.
Defence: We see slowing US defence budget growth to 2009, but expect continued support
for Army and upgrade/reset work. We see the potential for a positive surprise in the 2007
budget supplemental. We also see upside risk of selective good news on air programmes
(notably the KC-X air tanker and likely progress on F-35).
Other themes: (1) Currency—Dollar weakness skews the competitive dynamics in favour of
the US manufacturers and has significant earnings implications for the European stocks. (2)
Corporate activity—We see potential for a step-up in corporate activity in the sector in 2007,
with the major defence prime and large multi-industry companies likely consolidators.
Valuation: The global sector is trading on a 2007E P/E of 16.3x, EV/EBITA of 12.3x and
EV/sales of 1.16x, on our estimates. Our HOLT Aggregator analysis highlights the European
A&D and global civil aerospace sub-sectors as the most attractive on price-implied returns.
Table of contents
Executive summary...........................................................................................................6
Sector catalysts for 2007...............................................................................................7
Company views.................................................................................................................9
Sector performance.........................................................................................................13
Sector valuation summary ..............................................................................................14
HOLT Aggregator sector and sub-sector valuation analysis ..........................................22
Potential themes, issues and drivers for 2007................................................................40
Commercial aerospace markets..................................................................................40
Defence market outlook ..............................................................................................49
Export programmes.....................................................................................................58
Other major drivers for 2007 .......................................................................................59
Summary: End-market expectations...............................................................................62
Commercial aerospace outlook ......................................................................................67
Commercial aerospace: Demand for passenger air travel..........................................67
Commercial aircraft demand...........................................................................................87
Airline profitability ........................................................................................................87
Aircraft fleet development..........................................................................................101
Replacement demand/aircraft retirements ................................................................110
Aircraft in storage ......................................................................................................118
Freighter demand..........................................................................................................121
Commercial aviation support services ..........................................................................130
Airbus and Boeing market forecasts .............................................................................134
Commercial aircraft market shares ...............................................................................142
Commercial aircraft market outlook ..............................................................................151
Excess capacity model ..............................................................................................151
Previous cycles peak to trough .................................................................................154
Aircraft production and order intakes ........................................................................159
Order intake/order backlogs ......................................................................................162
Boeing and Airbus product ranges/launches ................................................................166
Commercial aero engine markets .................................................................................174
Competing engine offerings ......................................................................................174
Commercial aero engine market shares ...................................................................177
Market share by market segment..............................................................................178
CFM partnership agreements + CFM 56 development.............................................188
Installed base and aftermarket considerations..........................................................189
Aero-engine business model.....................................................................................192
Regional jets .................................................................................................................197
U.S. market................................................................................................................199
Europe .......................................................................................................................202
Asia...........................................................................................................................203
India and China—the primary growth markets..........................................................204
Bombardier (BBDb.TO, Underperform, TP: $2.65, MW)...........................................206
Hypothetical cash analysis ........................................................................................208
Connecting the dots...................................................................................................209
It’s just a theory .........................................................................................................209
Embraer (ERJ, Outperform, TP: $53.00, OW) ..........................................................212
Regional jet summary................................................................................................218
Business jet cycle remains strong.................................................................................220
Growth shifting internationally ...................................................................................220
Engine manufacturers raise long-term delivery forecasts.........................................221
Product segmentation ...............................................................................................223
Embraer firmly in business jet market .......................................................................224
VLJ market one step closer to fruition.......................................................................225
Gulfstream glides along.............................................................................................225
Textron ......................................................................................................................226
Bombardier ................................................................................................................228
Summary—business aircraft .....................................................................................228
Defence sector ..............................................................................................................230
Procurement environment .........................................................................................230
Global defence spending overview ...........................................................................233
US defence budget outlook .......................................................................................252
Credit Suisse FY08 Supplemental & Budget Outlook...............................................260
GEIA ten-year US defence spending outlook ...........................................................265
European defence spending .....................................................................................293
NATO.........................................................................................................................297
UK defence spending ................................................................................................298
Major programmes........................................................................................................304
Army procurement .....................................................................................................304
Air Force ....................................................................................................................308
Naval .........................................................................................................................310
European Aerospace & Defence industry—major players ...........................................313
Military aircraft...............................................................................................................316
Defence electronics...................................................................................................339
Missiles .........................................................................................................................349
Helicopter markets ........................................................................................................359
Homeland Security........................................................................................................371
Market size ................................................................................................................371
Spending history and forecasts .................................................................................374
Market segments, potential growth areas .................................................................378
Detection systems—key players and products .........................................................378
Space ............................................................................................................................383
Market size ................................................................................................................383
Spending history and forecasts .................................................................................383
Key players................................................................................................................386
Products ....................................................................................................................390
Emerging markets: Manufacturing industries ...............................................................392
Russia........................................................................................................................392
Key industrial players in the Russian aerospace industry.........................................393
China .........................................................................................................................401
DIRECTORY: COMPANY SUMMARIES
Alliant Techsystems (ATK)............................................................................................402
Armor Holdings (AH).....................................................................................................406
BAE Systems (BA.L) .....................................................................................................410
B/E Aerospace (BEAV) .................................................................................................414
Boeing (BA)...................................................................................................................418
Bombardier (BBDb.TO).................................................................................................422
CAE (CAE.TO) ..............................................................................................................426
Chemring (CHG.L) ........................................................................................................430
Cobham (COB.L) ..........................................................................................................434
DynCorp International (DCP) ........................................................................................438
EADS (EAD.PA)............................................................................................................442
EDO Corporation (EDO) ...............................................................................................446
Esterline Technologies (ESL) .......................................................................................450
Embraer (ERJ) ..............................................................................................................454
General Dynamics (GD)................................................................................................458
Goodrich (gr) .................................................................................................................462
Finmeccanica (SIFI.MI) .................................................................................................466
L-3 Communications (LLL)............................................................................................470
Lockheed Martin (LMT) .................................................................................................474
Meggitt (MGGT.L) .........................................................................................................478
Northrop Grumman (nOC) ............................................................................................482
Precision Castparts (PCP) ............................................................................................486
QinetiQ (QQ.L) ..............................................................................................................490
Raytheon (RTN) ............................................................................................................494
Rockwell Collins (COL) .................................................................................................498
Rolls-Royce (RR.L) .......................................................................................................502
SAAB (SAABb.ST) ........................................................................................................506
Smiths Group (SMIN.L).................................................................................................510
Spirit AeroSystems (SPR).............................................................................................514
Thales (TCFP.PA).........................................................................................................518
Transdigm (TDG) ..........................................................................................................522
Ultra Electronics (ULE.L) ..............................................................................................526
VT Group (VTG.L).........................................................................................................530
Appendix 1: Product information...................................................................................534
Appendix 2: Commercial aircraft orders and deliveries ................................................539
Appendix 3: GEIA forecast of US defence budget........................................................542
Appendix 4: Commercial aerospace glossary ..............................................................544
Appendix 5: Aerospace & Defence: Global comparisons.............................................547
Appendix 6: Major Credit Suisse sector reports in 2006...............................................550
Appendix 7: Calendar for 2007 .....................................................................................551
Credit Suisse Global Capital Goods Team ...................................................................552
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[此贴子已经被作者于2008-5-4 11:44:41编辑过]
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