高盛--亚太地区能源行业研究报告2008年5月

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GS Wildcat Explorer: Pan-Asian Energy Bi-Weekly
Valuation and performance
Over the past month, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Oil and
Gas Index was up 7.6%, outperforming the MSCI
Asia-Pacific Index by 3.2 percentage points (pp). In
our Asia-Pacific Energy coverage universe, the top
performers were CITIC Resources, China Gas and
COSL(A), which outperformed the MSCI Asia-
Pacific Oil and Gas Index by 26.6 pp, 16.4 pp, and
15.3 pp, respectively.
Stock focus
We downgraded PetroChina (0857.HK,PTR) to Sell
from Buy based on five primary reasons: (1)
Refining losses a drag on earnings. We estimate
refining losses exceeding Rmb100 bn in 2008E;
(2) Unlike Sinopec, PTR does not benefit
significantly from the VAT rebates recently
implemented, as PTR only imports approximately
15% of the crude that it processes; (3) Despite our
above-consensus oil price forecasts, we still
believe the risks to our forecasts are to the
upside. (4) Potential for consensus EPS
downgrades. (5) Valuation full. The key upside
risks for PTR are pricing reforms.

Industry trends
We have modestly bumped up our base-case
2008-2011 WTI spot oil price forecasts to
$108/$110/$120/$120 per barrel from our previous
forecast of $95/$105/$110/$110 per barrel,
respectively. In our view, risks to our 2008 and
2009 forecasts are distinctly to the upside, as oil
markets may have entered the final major upward
phase of the current ‘‘super-spike” era. An
alternative price path for 2008E-2011E might well
be $125/$200/$150/$75, with the point being that
prices might move appreciably higher in the
earlier years than our base-case price deck only to
subsequently fall back to much lower levels in the
out-years.
We have also boosted our normalized oil price to
$75 per barrel from $60 per barrel before. We
continue to use 2012 as our first ‘‘normalized’’
year. Our normalized view continues to be based
on a combination of oil prices and costs that
yields a ‘‘cost of capital’’ return for the industry
overall. The specific oil price has always been of
secondary importance to us. We continue to
assume that in a less bullish price environment,
costs will fall.

Table of contents
Sector performance 3
MSCI Oil and Gas Index versus MSCI Asia-Pacific Index and Brent crude oil prices 3
Valuation and performance 4
Global integrated oil companies: Valuation analysis, 2008E-2010E 4
Global exploration and production companies: Valuation analysis, 2008E-2010E 5
Global refiners: Valuation analysis, 2007E-2009E 6
Global oil services companies: Valuation analysis, 2008E-2010E 7
Global gas pipelines companies: Valuation analysis, 2007E-2009E 8
Integrated oil companies' share price performance 9
Exploration and production companies' share price performance 10
Refiners' share price performance 11
Oil service companies' share price performance 12
Gas pipelines companies' share price performance 13
Key commodity prices and margins 14
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price, 1993-2008 YTD 14
Spread of WTI versus other crude, 1993-2008 YTD 15
Hydrocarbon net speculative length versus WTI oil prices, 1995-2008 YTD 16
Singapore refining margins, 1990-2008 YTD 17
Key refinery product prices and margins, 2000-2008 YTD 18
Demand and supply trends 19
Monthly Asian energy macro data, 2003-2008 YTD 19
China apparent demand, 2005-2008 YTD 20
China apparent demand: Refined products, 2005-2008 YTD 20
China import and export data: Crude oil and total refined products, 2003-2008 21
China import and export data: Gasoline, kerosene, diesel, and fuel oil, 2003-2008 22
Oil inventories 23
OPEC monthly production and quota compliance 24
Drilling dayrates 25
Key upcoming events 26
Publications in the past two weeks 26
Disclosures 27

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