荷兰银行—亚太地区金属与矿产行业研究报告2007

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Coal comfort in the storm
We believe the major Chinese coal producers are enjoying a
confluence of positive factors that will result in strong growth over
the next few years, which is less dependent on the global economic
outlook. We initiate with an Overweight recommendation.

Demand-supply dynamics provide a favourable pricing backdrop
We forecast China will become a net importer of coal on a more sustained basis.
Demand from the power and steel industries remains strong, while supply growth is
likely to be limited by more stringent government policies, in our view. This comes as
India's import demand is expected to rise sharply (according to India's Ministry of
Coal), and supplies from Indonesia and Australia face constraints. As a result, we
believe contract thermal coal prices in the region are headed firmly higher. In China,
while we are optimistic of higher contract coal prices in 2008, we believe they are
unlikely to rise as much as international prices. However, beyond 2008, we expect
Chinese prices to continue to rise, even as international prices decline gradually.
Improving industry structure in China to create opportunities for majors
Given the strategic importance of coal in its energy needs, the Chinese government
has been keen to improve the industry structure so as to achieve more efficient and
safe mining of the country's coal resources. The thrust of the government's policy
direction has been towards 'bigger and stronger'. As such, we believe the major coal
producers are well-positioned to benefit from consolidation opportunities in the
industry. These players are also likely to participate in projects to convert coal to oil
and petrochemical products, which have potential to add value over the longer term,
given these companies' access to coal resources and the high oil price environment.
Strong defensive growth amid global uncertainties
We believe the growth story presented by the Chinese coal producers is less subject
to the vagaries of the global financial markets. Demand is driven by strong domestic
infrastructure development needs, and the negotiated pricing between resource
producers and consumers reflects underlying demand-supply fundamentals. We
forecast 2008 EPS growth of 32% for China Shenhua and 51% for China Coal. We
would be buyers of both stocks, and believe that each offers investors exposure to a
different theme, with China Shenhua likely to be active in acquisitions while China
Coal is more leveraged to the coal price cycle.

Contents
B A S I C E L E M E N T S 2 3 N O V E M B E R 2 0 0 7 2
E X E C U T I V E S U M M A R Y
Finding defence in turbulent times 3
Amid turbulence in financial markets, we look across our commodity sectors for
options that can provide more visible, and hence more defensive, growth profiles
that are less reliant on global consumption.
Positive on the Chinese coal sector 3
I N V E S T M E N T V I E W
The region in charts 4
Asian metals/mining at a glance 5
Winners and losers 8
Asian Metals and Mining monitor 10
T H E M E
Coal comfort in the storm 12
We believe various factors are coming together to support a positive operating
environment for coal producers. We see the large Chinese producers as
beneficiaries of these external and domestic factors.
A favourable pricing backdrop 12
Opportunities for the Chinese majors 15
Strong defensive growth amid global uncertainties 18
I N D U S T R Y D Y N A M I C S
Who can fill the gap? 22
China will turn into a net importer of coal on a more sustained basis in the next
few years, in our view. As a result, we envisage a tightening in the
demand/supply dynamics in the region, which should support higher...
China’s coal trade balance swings the other way 22
Regional dynamics could tighten market further 25
Alternative uses of coal 27
C O M P A N Y P R O F I L E S
Company profiles 29
China Shenhua Energy 30
China Coal Energy 49
Eye on the elements flash 64
Eye on the elements 67
POSCO 75
Tata Steel 82
Baoshan Iron & Steel 87
Angang Steel 94
Maanshan Iron & Steel 99
Steel Authority of India 104
China Steel Corp 109
C O M P A N Y U N I V E R S E D A T A S H E E T
Valuation charts 114
A P P E N D I X
Appendix 117

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荷兰银行—亚太地区金属与矿产行业研究报告2007
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