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雷达卡
Show me the quality 2.0
Updates to ranking from early January
We have updated our 2009 themes and quality ranking for our January report for
96 companies within eight technology sectors across Asia/Japan. Sectors that
increased in ranking were PC (3 to 2), semi-logic (5 to 3), LCD (8 to 7), and
consumer (7 to 6). Sectors that declined were memory (6 to 8) and components
(2 to 3). Handsets remained the highest ranking sector.
After inventory replenishment, risk of anemic tech demand
The four key reasons why we believe investors should focus on our metrics are as
follows: (1) sharp sell-off in share price has created both opportunity and risk of
value traps; (2) weak recovery would prove destructive to marginal players;
(3) the competitive gap between leaders and laggards would widen in 2010; and
(4) ROE/ROIC and profit share should rise more quickly for leaders than laggards.
Add selectively –prefer semi-logic and LCD
We currently see most potential upside in semi-logic and LCD due to attractive
valuation and cycles having bottomed. However, the risk of a slow demand
recovery suggests investors should buy selectively — we recommend companies
that rank well in terms of growth, market share, profitability, OP leverage, OP
efficiency, capital efficiency, gearing, and ROE. In addition, our valuation overlay
helps identify attractively valued quality and, conversely, overpriced quality.
Attractively priced quality, overpriced low quality
We recommend investors to reduce positions in memory stocks and Samsung
Electronics and to add to semi-logic and LCD and selectively elsewhere. Buyrated
stocks that screen relatively highly and we believe are attractively valued
include Acer (6), Compal Electronics (10), LG Display (65), Mediatek (2), SPIL
(13), and TSMC (15).
Underperform-rated stocks that are richly valued and have low quality attributes
include Asustek (34), Chi Mei (89), Hynix (79), Inotera (96), Largan (33), and
Pioneer (91). Companies with relatively high ranking but still need better entrypoints
(eg, watch-list) include HTC (1), Richtek (3) and Himax (9).
Contents
Continue to add tech selectively 3
Drivers of returns 4
Sub-sector comparisons 6
(1) Growth, (2) Profitability, (3) Capex/sales, (4) Net debt/equity,
(5) ROE, (6) Valuation.
High-quality company screen 12
Stocks: Most/least preferred 14
PC sector 19
Handset sector 20
Consumer electronics/games sector 21
TFT-LCD sector 22
Electronic component sector 23
Foundry sector 24
Semi assembly/test sector 26
IC substrate sector 27
Semiconductor memory– DRAM/NAND 28
Semi production equipment sector 29
Appendix: Cyclical indicators 30
Appendix: Data tables 32
T eam Page 55
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