Asia PC Sector
SECTOR REVIEW
The changing landscape for PCs
■ Just as the market started to write off the PC industry as boring and
ex-growth, the industry has now heated up and is set to deliver some
exciting new products. Netbooks, which arrived on the scene last year,
are now moving beyond original PC channels and shipments are
expected to more than double in 2009. CULVs (power-efficient, slim
and moderately priced) should create another new category this
quarter and, even in the desktop space, we should get all-in-one
desktops, both at the low-priced end and for touch-screen users.
Netbooks are also looking at telecoms channel distribution, trying to
expand to the 1 bn 3G subscribers and 171 mn broadband access
markets in 2010.
■ The combination of new products and potentially very strong unit
growth is challenging the competitive status quo in the PC industry –
for vendors and key component suppliers. We believe investors will
have to re-evaluate their long-held notions and revisit the cost and
margin structure of various companies involved in the PC chain. This
is because the new products, while being significantly unit-accretive,
are likely to prove to be ASP-dilutive. Similarly, long-standing
component relationships may become challenged by new competitors.
■ Within the Asian downstream space, we see Acer as the best PC brand
player (increasing market share and margins). We believe that the worst
is over for Asustek and expect it to see improved sales and margins
from 2Q09. For components, Unimicron (the biggest beneficiary of
increased use of HDI PCBs) and Delta (resilient margin performance in
troughs) are our preferred picks. We have upgraded all four of these
stocks to OUTPERFORM. On the other hand, we think the trade is done
in ODMs and have downgraded Compal to NEUTRAL. Essentially, we are
long a basket of brands and components and short ODMs.