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Alternative Energy
Thin Is In: A Closer Look At The
Thin Film PV Market
With Updated Global PV Supply/Demand Model
With the continued shortage of polysilicon, we have taken a closer look at
the thin film PV market, which we think will begin to grow significantly over
the next few years. In this report, we discuss technology trends, provide a
TF forecast, highlight key co's and update our PV supply/demand model.
Although the investment opportunities are limited at this point, we believe
investors should pay attention to TF market development as it will impact
current public non-TF companies as a competitive technology. Also, many
co's may look to public markets in the future as they reach critical mass.
While TF production is dominated by FSLR and ENER, more than 30 co's
have ramp plans over the next several years, leading to our est. of more
than 3GW of TF sales in 2010, up from only ~400MW in 2007. The rapid
expansion provides a sizable rev. opty for equip makers AMAT & Oerlikon.
We believe the massive investment in the TF and crystalline supply chain
will lead to an oversupply of modules beginning in 2009 based on current
global incentive programs. We see TF PV as more insulated from the drastic
module ASP reductions likely to result due to its lower cost advantage.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ................................................................................ 3
Thin Film PV Overview............................................................................. 5
TF Market Development Important for Current Solar Investors to Watch..... 5
Thin Film PV vs. Crystalline Silicon PV..................................................... 6
Thin Film PV Supply (2007—2011)............................................................ 9
Amorphous Silicon (a-Si) ...................................................................... 9
Key Companies in the a-Si Space to Watch: ....................................... 10
Amorphous Silicon Equipment Manufacturers......................................... 12
Applied Materials Inc. ...................................................................... 12
Oerlikon Solar................................................................................. 12
Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIS/CIGS) ......................................... 13
Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)................................................................... 15
Other Technologies ............................................................................ 16
Global PV Supply/Demand ..................................................................... 18
Polysilicon Supply............................................................................ 18
Total PV Module Supply (All Technologies).......................................... 20
Global Module Demand .................................................................... 21
Appendix A: Thin Film Technologies ........................................................ 24
Amorphous Silicon (a-Si) .................................................................... 24
Polycrystalline Thin Film...................................................................... 26
Cadmium Telluride (CdTe)................................................................ 26
Copper Indium Gallium Selenide (CIS, CIGS)...................................... 27
Thin Film Silicon.............................................................................. 28
Single-Crystalline Thin Film................................................................. 28
Organic PV (OPV)............................................................................... 29
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