巴西电信行业研究报告2008年4月

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Supportive macro picture and positive
sector trends spur telecoms growth
􀀗 2008 a year of transition with increasing
competition and likely consolidation
􀀗 We initiate coverage on all the key
players in Brazilian Telecoms; we prefer
mobile players (Vivo, TIM Part.) over
fixed-line (Telesp, Net)
We believe telecoms have significant room to grow in Brazil.
The largest market in LatAm is experiencing unprecedented
political stability and economic growth: a rising population, low
inflation rate, increasing GDP per capita, and a stable currency
provide a positive environment for investment, we believe. We
expect telecoms revenues to grow at a CAGR of 4% over 2008-
2010, compared with our HSBCe real GDP CAGR of 4.4%
over the same period. By 2012, we expect c190m mobile
subscribers, or 93% penetration. We expect the number of fixed
lines to continue its decline, partly offset by broadband growth,
where we see penetration reaching c30% of households in the
São Paulo region (30% of national GDP) by 2012.
Mobile growth and fixed-mobile convergence: We believe
Brazil’s reported mobile penetration is inflated by SIM card
double-counting, so we see more penetration upside than the
consensus expects. We expect mobile to expand into lower
income groups, helped by the steadily falling cost of both
services and devices. This year should see major 3G launches,
which may help stabilise ARPU through mobile data uptake.
We see Vivo and TIM Participaçoes as well-placed, and we
initiate on both with Overweight ratings for all share classes. 3G
fixed-mobile convergent services could exacerbate fixed-line
loss, and we see wireline single players as vulnerable;
consequently, we initiate on Telesp at Underweight. We also
initiate on cable TV Net Serviços at Underweight for all share
classes, which we believe can grow only inorganically.
Consolidation: We initiate coverage on Tele Norte Leste
(TNL) at Overweight for common shares and Neutral for
preference shares and ADRs. TNL is negotiating to acquire
Brasil Telecom (Neutral all share classes), a move that could
trigger second-order consolidation, which would probably
most benefit Vivo and Telesp.

目录

Investment summary 3
Changes favour mobile,
undermine fixed line 10
Companies 21
Vivo Participaçoes 22
TIM Participaçoes 31
Telesp 38
Brasil Telecom S.A 47
Telemar 57
Net Serviços 66
Disclosure appendix 74
Disclaimer 79

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