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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月韩国电信行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：26
【目录或简介】：
Smartphone push likely to depress 1Q
earnings for SKT in particular
Marketing cost cap at 22% of sales in
2010 likely: potential upside to profits
KT (OW, KRW60,000) remains our top
pick, and an Asia Super Ten idea
Against a backdrop of increased marketing expenditure on
smartphones, the Korean regulator (KCC) is discussing a cap
on marketing costs. Applied as a percentage of both wireless
and wireline sales, the proposed limit is 22% in 2010, and
20% in 2011. This compares to our current forecasts of
(wireless) marketing costs of between 23-28%. If applied,
the potential upside to our OP estimates varies between 7%
(for KT) to 30% (LGT).
We take a conservative view: we know of no precedent for
such a cap, and discussions currently underway suggest that
creating a fair implementation based on common definitions
is likely to be very difficult.
Consequently, while we discuss potential outcomes and
impacts in this report, we make no changes to our forecasts
pending confirmation. We cut our SK Telecom estimates
due to likely higher marketing costs as the company attempts
to offset KT’s progress with the iPhone, and reduce our
target price by 6% to KRW191,000.
Our view of the regulatory environment in Korea remains
positive, and we continue to expect strong growth in wireless
data relative to regional and global peers.
Our top pick remains KT Corp, where we expect OP growth
in 2010 of 24% driven by wireless data revenue growth of
30%, and a cKRW250bn reduction in labour costs following
the Early Retirement Program completed in December 2009.
KT valuations remain attractive at 8x 2010 earnings, and
EV/EBITDA of 3.1x. KT is the best-positioned Asian telco
against the network ‘capacity crunch’, and remains attractive
from a dividend perspective, with a forecast yield in 2010 of
5%. We are 9% above consensus OP estimates for KT in
2010, and 14% ahead in 2011.
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