北美保险行业研究报告2008年4月

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Canadian Life Insurers (Lifecos) often endure significant profitability headwinds
due to a peculiarity found in Canadian GAAP (CGAAP) / actuarial guidelines
where insurance sales can result in downward earnings pressure (referred to as new
business strain). Strain may result in an upfront loss when a sale is made with
profits emerging over the life of the policy. Occasionally elements (i.e.,
assumption changes) contribute to a spike in strain, which results in an exaggerated
drag on upfront earnings, adding to confusion in a sector that is already complex.
Industrial-Alliance (IAG) brought strain into the spot light when its individual
insurance division struggled to show profit growth in early 2006. Similarly, profits
at Sun Life’s (SLF) U.S. life insurance division evaporated in Q3/06 due to higher
strain caused by the launch of a no lapse insurance policy.
In this report, we attempt to demystify strain by delving into three topics. First, we
discuss challenges with a Lifecos income statement, how reserves are set up under
CGAAP, and how profits emerge. Second, we delve into the sources of earnings
(SOE) disclosure. Third, we discuss the value of new business (VNB) metric.
We believe this report is geared toward investors that are looking for a greater
understanding of how the mechanics of CGAAP / Canadian actuarial guidelines
work, and what in our view are the important metrics to keep an eye on.

Table of Contents
Insurance Accounting 101: The Basics……………………………… 4
i. Challenges with a Lifeco Income Statement……………… 4
ii. Reserves & New Business Strain ………..…………………. 5
iii. Profit Emergence …………....……………………………… 6
Sources of Earnings – A Better View of Lifeco Earnings …………… 7
i. Expected Profit from In-Force Business ................................. 9
ii. Experience Gains (Losses) ……………..…………………… 10
iii. Impact from New Business (Strain)………………………… 13
iv. Management Actions / Assumption Changes …..…………… 16
v. Earnings on Surplus Funds / Capital ………………………… 17
Value of New Business – The Missing Piece of the Puzzle…………… 18
Appendix I. Where Macro Variables Flow through SOE …....………… 20
Appendix II. Canadian Lifecos Product Overview …………………… 21
Appendix III. Profit Emergence: CGAAP vs. U.S. GAAP …………... 22
Appendix IV. Justification and Key Risks to Target Prices ..………… 23
Appendix V. Life Insurance Comp Table ………………………......... 25

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