花旗--韩国金融行业研究报告2007

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Turning More Positive on Korea Banks
 Turning positive on Korea banks: What’s changed? — Since publication of
our first issue of In the Money, valuations have become more compelling,
with Korean banks underperforming the KOSPI by 12% during the past two
months. We see limited net interest margin (NIM) downside.
 Why NIM is important — Net interest margin is the single biggest swing factor
in sector earnings, comprising 88% of total operating income. Our sensitivity
analysis shows that each 10bps change in NIM moves net profit by 6%.
 Signs of NIM stabilization? — Net interest margin compression should ease
for the rest of 2007 over 1Q07 thanks to a bigger proportion of higher-yield
corporate loans, less upward pressure on funding costs, decelerating loan
growth in 2H07 and LG Card disposal gains that would increase the earnings
asset base without additional funding needs.
 Buy on all banks; Shinhan FG is our top pick — Upgrading Kookmin Bank
and Shinhan FG to Buy from Hold. Shinhan FG is our top pick given its
superior non-bank presence and 21% 2-year CAGR in cash based earnings.
Hana FG is our second pick. Despite the intrinsic value of smaller banks, we
expect large banks to perform first in the recovery cycle with smaller banks
following.
 Limited downside risk — We see little downside for Hana FG and IBK as both
trade near 1.0x 2008 P/B without serious operating problems. Dividend yields
look decent for Kookmin Bank, IBK and Pusan Bank at around 4%, providing
more downside support.

Contents
Turning More Positive on Korea Banks 3
Net interest margin – why is it important? 4
Valuation – Attractive valuations; Shinhan is our top pick followed by Hana FG 21
Quantitative Perspective: Korean Banks 25
1Q07: Comparative Analysis 31
APPENDIX: Macro Economy Data Check 39
Kookmin Bank (060000.KS) 42
Shinhan Financial (055550.KS) 48
Hana Financial Group (086790.KS) 55
Industrial Bank of Korea (024110.KS) 60
Daegu Bank (005270.KS) 65
Pusan Bank (005280.KS) 70
Appendix A-1 78

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