贝尔斯登--台湾金融行业研究报告2008年1月

相似文件 换一批

是 否 +2 论坛币

k人 参与回答

经管之家送您一份

应届毕业生专属福利!

求职就业群

赵安豆老师微信：zhaoandou666

经管之家联合CDA

送您一个全额奖学金名额~ !

立即领取

感谢您参与论坛问题回答

经管之家送您两个论坛币！

+2 论坛币

<p>Taiwan Financials<br/>Cheap for Good Reasons<br/>􀂄 LOW VALUATION CAUSED BY UNCERTAINTIES IN EARNINGS OUTLOOK. Most of<br/>the Taiwan financial groups underperformed the market in 2007, and our<br/>coverage group is still trading at a 2008E P/BV below 1.6x. We believe there<br/>remain some uncertainties in the earnings outlook of Taiwan financials for 2008.<br/>These include trends in loan growth, net interest margin, asset quality, insurance<br/>premium growth and investment returns, and subprime-related provisions.<br/>􀂄 INITIATE COVERAGE AT MARKET WEIGHT. In view of a potential increase in<br/>loan loss provisions for unsecured lending and additional provisions for subprime<br/>and related securities, our earnings forecasts show a slow rise in ROE for the<br/>financial holding companies during 2008-09. Our Gordon Growth Model also<br/>indicates that current valuations look demanding. We initiated coverage of the<br/>Taiwan financials sector with a Market Weight rating.<br/>􀂄 INITIATED COVERAGE OF SEVEN FINANCIAL GROUPS. We recently initiated<br/>coverage of Chinatrust, Fubon, and Cathay with Outperform ratings. We also<br/>initiated coverage of First and E.Sun with Peer Perform ratings, and SinoPac and<br/>Shin Kong with Underperform ratings.<br/>􀂄 CHINATRUST, FUBON, AND CATHAY OUR TOP PICKS. We expect these three<br/>financial groups to have a long-term sustainable ROE of over 15%. We believe<br/>this will be achieved through strong loan growth, high net interest margin, and<br/>solid fee income base and/or dominant life insurance business. In addition, each<br/>of these firms has an extensive overseas network, which should help them to<br/>generate new business opportunities in the next few years.</p><p>Table of Contents Page<br/>Executive Summary...................................................................................................................................................5<br/>Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................................9<br/>The Banking Business .............................................................................................................................................11<br/>Growth Driver (1): Strong Growth in OBU and Offshore Loans......................................................................12<br/>Growth Driver (2): Net Interest Margin to Bottom Out ....................................................................................19<br/>Growth Driver (3): Room for Expansion in Fee Income...................................................................................23<br/>Growth Driver (4): Tight Cost Control .............................................................................................................29<br/>Key Risk (1): Mixed Picture in Asset Quality...................................................................................................32<br/>Key Risk (2): Subprime and Related Exposures ...............................................................................................37<br/>The Insurance Business ...........................................................................................................................................39<br/>Growth Driver (1): Investment-linked Life Products........................................................................................40<br/>Growth Driver (2): Demand Driven by Stable GDP Growth............................................................................42<br/>Growth Driver (3): Economies of Scale Count .................................................................................................45<br/>Growth Driver (4): Overseas Opportunities ......................................................................................................49<br/>Key Risk (1): Uncertainty in Investment Return...............................................................................................52<br/>Key Risk (2): Limited Room for Improvement in Efficiency Ratios................................................................57<br/>Valuation and Stock Recommendations..................................................................................................................59<br/>Stock Performance ...........................................................................................................................................60<br/>Valuation: Bank Financial Holding Companies................................................................................................62<br/>Valuation: Insurance Financial Holding Companies.........................................................................................64<br/>Recommendations ............................................................................................................................................67</p><p>Companies ...............................................................................................................................................................69<br/>Chinatrust Financial Holding Co. Ltd.: Toward a Full Recovery in 2008 ........................................................70<br/>E.Sun Financial Holding Co. Ltd.: Fast Growth but ROE Continues to Lag....................................................79<br/>First Financial Holding Co. Ltd.: A Steadily Growing Bank............................................................................87<br/>Fubon Financial Holding Co. Ltd.: The Best Group Integration Model ...........................................................96<br/>SinoPac Financial Holdings Co. Ltd.: Limited Growth Drivers .....................................................................105<br/>Cathay Financial Holding Co. Ltd.: The Largest Financial Holding Company in Taiwan.............................114<br/>Shin Kong Financial Holding Co. Ltd.: Deep into Subprime .........................................................................123<br/>All pricing is as of the market close on January 16, 2008, unless otherwise indicated.</p><p></p><p> 219141.pdf (2.38 MB, 需要: 10 个论坛币)

2008-6-13 13:18:00 上传

贝尔斯登--台湾金融行业研究报告2008年1月
需要: 10 个论坛币  [购买]

<br/></p><p></p>

扫码加我 拉你入群

请注明：姓名-公司-职位

以便审核进群资格，未注明则拒绝

分享0 收藏0 回帖

关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 金融行业 行业研究 贝尔斯登 investment 研究报告 interest believe outlook

买不起呢。。。。。。。。。。。。

thank you very much for your sharing