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Asia-Pacific Banks 2H 2008 Outlook
Oil Shocks and Economic Visibility
Oil: the new policy dilemma — Record oil prices and their pervasive impact on
Asian economies have replaced US recession concerns as the focal point for govt.
and central bank policy decisions. Stagflation fears have dramatically reduced
near term earnings visibility and help explain the widespread sell down of bank
stocks regionally. But this creates buying opportunities both near and medium
term. We showcase an "economic visibility" matrix to help identify which banks
may be resilient during the oil shock and those that may rebound if oil prices fall.
Buying opportunities — First, as banks are sold down indiscriminately, we would
buy quality banks whose business models are highly resilient notwithstanding oil
price concerns. Second, we believe there are higher beta, more leveraged banks
that clearly will suffer temporary earnings pressure in this current environment,
but will bounce back strongly once inflation and interest rate pressures subside.
Banks' economic visibility matrix — With poor bank earnings visibility, we take a
step up from the micro numbers and try to identify where at the macroeconomic
level there is greater resilience to the present oil shock, resulting in the following
country ranking of economic visibility. High visibility: Singapore, Hong Kong;
Medium visibility: China, Malaysia, Taiwan; Low visibility: Indonesia, India, Korea,
Thailand; Very low visibility: Pakistan. We advocate a barbell of "defensives" (DBS,
Public, Chinatrust, BCA), and (if oil prices fall) high beta plays (Danamon, BCHB,
Axis). We are sellers of selected Thai big-caps and all covered Pakistan banks.
Contents
Asia-Pacific Banks 2H 2008 Outlook 3
Oil: the New Policy Dilemma 3
Creating the Banks' "Economic Visibility" Matrix 6
Selected Top Buy Ideas 15
Earnings Forecast Assumptions and Sensitivities 19
Valuations Sensitivity Study: How Much Growth is Priced in? 20
China 22
An Eventful Year 22
Hong Kong 28
Still Loose Monetary Conditions—for Now 28
India 34
Pain – But Also Time to Play for Some Gain 34
Indonesia 41
Policy Risk from Inflation, Rising Fiscal Deficit 41
Korea 48
Overcoming Growing Pains 48
Malaysia 55
Rising Oil Prices are Actually Beneficial 55
Pakistan 62
Looking for the Floor 62
Singapore 69
Bridge Over Troubled Waters 69
Taiwan 76
Bridging the Gap Between Perception and Reality 76
Thailand 83
Staying Cautious on the Big Caps 83
Quants View: Banks – Attractive 99
Appendix A-1 101
Analyst Certification 101
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