灾难经济学与汶川地震

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Calamity Economics and Wenchuan earthquake (杨祖宪新编）

Calamity economics suggests that some businesses can benefit from reconstruction of a natural disaster like flood, a hurricane or an earthquake. Roofing after a Hurricane is one of these examples.

        After Hurricane Andrew hit south Florida during the fall of 1992, many homes were left without roofs. The were not enough roofers in the area to repair all the roofs that were destroyed. Many people from other parts of the country with some background in roofing moved to south Florida and began roofing businesses. Some people had limited roofing experience but decide to quickly learn the business. Most of these roofers did not have a place of business but simply advertised in local newspapers.

        Many of these new roofing businesses were successful because they provided a much needed service.

        Wenchuan earthquake occurred at 14:28 on 12 May 2008 in Sichuan province of China.

The earthquake caused enormous casualties – the death toll is expected to exceed 90,000 – and left several million people homeless. However, it has had little direct impact on the country's industrial infrastructure.

`       Some economists believe the great earthquake has hit the local economy a lot but the China’s national economy as a whole will remain strong. Actually it will boost China's economic growth, thanks to the billions due to be poured into reconstruction. The earthquake reconstruction will add0.3 percentage points to China's growth rate this year, the State Information Centre, a research group that is part of the government's main planning body, said yesterday.

According to the State Information Centre, direct losses from the earthquake will reach Rmb400bn-500bn ($58bn-$73bn,

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关键词：汶川地震 经济学 Construction information Earthquake 经济学 地震 汶川 灾难

有道理

最经典的fallacy!

那么想想，如果你们县衙门发现当地的玻璃厂的玻璃不好卖了，干脆就去偷偷地把当地的玻璃都打烂，这样就好卖阿，而且GDP又上去了。

灾难对经济带来的冲击是同样的道理

建议去看看那本浅显的one course in economics，开篇就讲这个谬论。

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-8-8 9:37:14编辑过]

以下是引用Quaikie在2008-8-8 9:34:00的发言：
最经典的fallacy!

那么想想，如果你们县衙门发现当地的玻璃厂的玻璃不好卖了，

 

干脆就去偷偷地把当地的玻璃都打烂，这样就好卖阿，而且GDP又上去了。

灾难对经济带来的冲击是同样的道理

建议去看看那本浅显的one course in economics，开篇就讲这个谬论。

相比楼主的照本宣科，应该说，你比较有道理。

但是考虑到中国国情，似乎又会有所不同。

举个例子，有人开油漆厂，就买通地方官员，用油漆绿化荒山。

这是小的，大的像有人想让国家拨款，就说发现华南虎，

还有人搞个300亿的文化城预算，目的是拿10亿元，搞工程，挣钱。

所以我们国家灾难带来的冲击未必会大过平时这些浪费钱财的行为，

而且迅速提高的监控力度也保障了重建的高效率。

所以楼主提到的“investment resulting from the earthquake will add 0.4 percentage points.”

也许有可能，但必须明确的是，这不是由于灾难带来的，而是由于高效的救灾和重建带来的。 

有点跑题了。 

一點都不Fallacy呀。

資本主義強國不是可以通過發動戰爭來促進內外需嗎？

看下＜貨幣戰爭＞中描述的就可見一斑了

以下是引用Quaikie在2008-8-8 9:34:00的发言：
最经典的fallacy!

那么想想，如果你们县衙门发现当地的玻璃厂的玻璃不好卖了，干脆就去偷偷地把当地的玻璃都打烂，这样就好卖阿，而且GDP又上去了。

灾难对经济带来的冲击是同样的道理

建议去看看那本浅显的one course in economics，开篇就讲这个谬论。

說到GDP的問題那又是另一回事兒了，GDP不能完全代表經濟實質怎麼樣，還是有它的盲點在的。

比如，一位当代欧洲学者说：“一条公路上两辆汽车对驶，擦肩而过相安无事，几乎对GDP没有任何影响。但如果相撞，GDP马上会说very good，因为撞车以后伴随而来的是警察处理交通事故、修理汽车或新购置汽车、新闻媒体报道、医院救护等，这些都可刺激GDP的增长，

[此贴子已经被作者于2008-8-8 11:10:03编辑过]

不管怎麼樣，我們就結果論吧

Do you have any conscience? Or you lost your mind? Your think war could improve the economy? 

GDP is not a good way to measure the welfare in an area. And what people care are their welfare, their happiness or their utility. Our goal is to maximize our utility. Sometimes, rising in GDP may decrease in utility.

What you try to say seems that disaster is good to people. This is, definitely, a fallacy.

楼上，怎么这么喜欢使用英文啊？ 是外国人吗？ 还是不会安装输入法？

以下是引用pineleon在2008-8-8 11:04:00的发言：

一點都不Fallacy呀。

資本主義強國不是可以通過發動戰爭來促進內外需嗎？

看下＜貨幣戰爭＞中描述的就可見一斑了

“发动战争”和“破窗理论”应该还不一样了。

《货币战争》中的历史似乎可信度不怎么样吧。

《货币战争》之中是怎么描述林肯死亡的原因的，呵呵。