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Fortune favours the leaders
While global peers under stress from weakening demand trade at an average PEG of
1.8, China’s F&B sector has fallen to an average PEG of 0.9, even as recent
consumption trends continue to support the structural growth story. Retail sales of food,
beverage and tobacco & liquor rose by more than 20% y-y in 1H08. This is not just
inflation at work — in 1H08, per capita disposable income of urban households and
rural households increased by 14.4% and 19.8% y-y in nominal terms, and by 6.3%
and 10.3% y-y in real terms, respectively. We are convinced that demand for staples
will hold up even as the cost of living rises and we believe that rising incomes and
urbanisation will continue to encourage consumers to upgrade to value-added and
higher-quality products. However, not all producers are going to be as happy as the
consumers seem to be, and many small players are closing shop as they lack the
scale economies to absorb rising input costs. We favour companies that enjoy
demonstrable pricing power (thanks to clear leadership in branded segments) and the
strength to survive industry consolidation (by leading it). Our picks on this basis are
Want Want, China Green and Huabao, all STRONG BUYs.
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-8-29 18:35:17编辑过]
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