市场引发恐惧与希望。多年来,恐惧一直围绕美国,希望则聚集于中国。现在,这种情况开始发生改变。过去几周里,少量数据引起人们对中国经济的极大担忧。
此前,许多人希望中国经济与美国和欧洲是“脱钩”的,但这周的供应经理人调查显示,中国制造业紧随美欧经济,呈下滑趋势。坊间证据(很多投资者对其进行追踪)显示,中国经济正陷入严重低迷。
更重要的是,政策动向显示,中国官员也对当前状况感到担忧。去年,中国央行(PBoC)为避免经济过热,多次收紧官方利率,从6.12%提高到7.47%。但上周中国央行减息1.12个百分点,目前利率已降到5.58%。降息前,中国政府还宣布了一套财政刺激方案。
还有汇率方面的变化。周2,人民币对美元连续贬值3日, 看起来这无足轻重,但它意味着人民币兑美元汇率跌至6月12日以来的最低点。自2005年7月以来,人民币开始对美元升值,到今年7月为止,升幅达到约20%。随后即停止升值。
上述变化是否意味着,中国政府现在想要人民币再次贬值?这是符合逻辑的。此前的升值除了起到抑制通胀的作用,还可能加深了出口商本已面临的各种困难。
另一种观点认为,这出于政治目的。人为压低汇率,将使进口产品对中国国内消费者来说变得更为昂贵,而出口产品对外国消费者来说变得更便宜。因此,中国的汇率变动将引发担忧,即中国正准备发动一场贸易战争。
这种观点是有争议的,但在当前这种环境下,它已提供足够理由让恐惧更紧密地笼罩市场。
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美国财长保尔森(Hank Paulson)周二呼吁中国加强人民币汇率,美国及其它国家对人民币大幅贬值可能产生影响的担忧日益加深。
在启程前往北京访问前夕,保尔森呼吁中国坚持鼓励人民币升值的政策。
市场预期显示,1年后的人民币汇率可能从当前1美元兑6.8871人民币贬值为1美元兑7.30人民币。周一,美元自6.8346人民币/美元的起始汇率,对人民币升值0.7%,这是自2005年人民币开始小幅浮动以来,美元对人民币的最大单日升幅。
这一动向致使一些分析师推断,中国正寻求通过使货币贬值,来抵消全球经济放缓的影响。
许多经济学家警告,竞争性的货币贬值(尤其是像中国和日本这样的贸易大国),可能导致总体需求下降,使全球经济放缓加剧。
在为展望将于本周举行的中美战略经济对话所做的演讲中,保尔森呼吁中国采取措施,使中国经济实现“持续、强劲和平衡的增长”。中国政府对中美战略经济对话非常重视。
保尔森补充道,“这意味着经济增长更为依赖国内需求,减轻依赖出口”,他表示,实现这一转变需要“果敢的领导力以及坚决的结构改革”,来刺激普通中国家庭的消费,以及改善中国的资本配置。
保尔森称,“持续的汇率政策改革,是这一更为广泛的改革进程的组成部分。自2005年以来,中国政府已让人民币对美元升值超过20%——这非常重要,意义也十分重大,但重要的是,这一改革过程持续下去。”
Markets turn on fear and hope. For years fear has orbited around the US, with hope centred on China. That is now beginning to change. In the last few weeks, some small items of data have provoked great concern about China.
Far from “decoupling”, as many had hoped, this week's supply manager surveys showed Chinese manufacturing declining in lockstep with the US and the eurozone. Anecdotal evidence, carefully tracked by many, suggests a serious downturn.
More importantly, policy moves suggest Chinese officials are worried. Last week saw a cut of 1.12 percentage points in policy rates by the People's Bank of China, which had spent last year tightening policy rates, from 6.12 to 7.47 per cent, in an attempt to avert overheating. Rates are now down to 5.58 per cent. That followed a fiscal stimulus.
Then there is the exchange rate. The Chinese renminbi fell 0.88 per cent against the dollar on Monday, and regained only part of this in trading yesterday. This sounds inconsequential, but it makes the Chinese currency its weakest against the dollar since June 12. Renminbi appreciation, which began in 2005, had seen the currency gain about 20 per cent against the dollar until July this year. Since then it has halted.
Is this a sign that China now wants the renminbi to fall once more? It would be logical. The prior appreciation seems to have more than done its job of choking off inflation, and may have deepened difficulties that exporters would in any case have been suffering.
Another view is that this is political. An artificially low exchange rate makes imports expensive for domestic consumers and exports cheap for foreigners. Thus this move stokes fears that China is gearing up for a trade war.
This is contentious, but in the current environment this is ample reason for fear to take a tighter hold on markets.
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Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, called on China on Tuesday to strengthen its currency amid deepening fears in Washington and beyond about the possible effects of a plunge in the value of the renminbi.
Speaking ahead of a trip to Beijing, Mr Paulson called on China to maintain its policy of encouraging the renminbi to appreciate.
Market expectations for the renminbi a year from now indicate it could weaken to Rmb7.30 against the dollar from its current level of Rmb6.8871. On Monday, the dollar rallied 0.7 per cent against the renminbi, rising from Rmb6.8346 – the biggest one-day appreciation for the dollar since the renminbi floated in 2005.
The shift led some analysts to conclude China was seeking to compensate for the global economic slowdown by devaluing.
Many economists have warned that competitive devaluations – particularly by big trading nations such as China and Japan – run the risk of making global slowdowns worse by reducing overall demand.
In a speech looking forward to this week's Strategic Economic Dialogue between China and the US – a forum much prized by Beijing – Mr Paulson called for China to take measures leading towards “sustainable, strong and balanced growth”.
He added: “This means relying more on domestic demand and less on exports to drive growth,” a shift he said would require “bold leadership and decisive structural reforms” to boost ordinary Chinese families' spending and improve China's allocation of capital.
“Continued reform of China's exchange rate policies is an integral part of this broader reform process,” he said. “China has appreciated the renminbi over 20 per cent against the dollar since 2005 – this is important and significant, but it is important that the reform process continue.”
http://www.ftchinese.com/story.php?lang=en&storyid=001023436
http://www.ftchinese.com/story.php?lang=en&storyid=001023433
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-12-4 4:57:27编辑过]