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Russian fixed-line telcos
Further estimates, PTs cut on new FX, macro forecast
Telecoms
Elena BazhenovaAC
(7-495) 937-7314
elena.bazhenova@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Bank International LLC
Jean-Charles Lemardeley, CFA *
(44-20) 7325-5763
jean-charles.lemardeley@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
* Registered/qualified as a research analyst under NYSE/NASD rules
See page 26 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
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investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies
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• We are cutting fixed-line telcom sector estimates for the second time
since December of 2008 on the back of new macro forecasts from J.P.
Morgan’s economists. We have incorporated new ‘09E/10E/11E
RUB/USD$ F/X rates (35.3/34.8/35.0 vs. previous 31.4/32.0/32.6) that
have resulted in 7-11% ’09E-’11E earning cuts (see Table 1). However,
our local currency earning estimates and ratings are unchanged. We are
now using implied ’09-10E P/E multiples of 8.0 times to determine our
PTs because a DCF valuation implies that the market will begin to
discount growth again - something which we believe is unlikely in the
near term. Our Dec 09 PTs are cut by 30-79%.
• Comstar remains our top pick in the sector. A potential disposal of a
25% Svyazinvest stake by Comstar, which is under discussion in the
government, may serve as a catalyst for this name. We believe the scheme
of the deal may become known in 1Q09. This comes on top of the
company’s limited exposure to currency devaluation risk due to its debt
structure and stable financial outlook for 2009 and 2010.
• Risks. We view a ruble devaluation risk as a key threat and believe that
telcos should benefit should CBR prove successful in stabilizing the
currency. Svyazinvest’s restructuring, which is already underway,
represents a risk for regional telcos in our view since the new structure of
the holding remains unknown. Another risk is a demanding debt payment
schedule for some telcos (Southern, Central, Ural). Rostelecom companyspecific
risk is related to the uncertainty of its new strategic investors’
plans regarding to this asset, we believe. At the same time, the strategic
investors’ support makes the name one of the best performers in Russian
universe, we believe.
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