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Telecom Services 4Q08 Preview
Resilience Expected, Guidance in Focus
Telecoms
Maurice PatrickAC
(44-20) 7325-9025
maurice.patrick@jpmorgan.com
Jonathan Dann
(44-20) 7325-6853
jonathan.dann@jpmorgan.com
Akhil Dattani
(44-20) 7325-6337
akhil.dattani@jpmorgan.com
John-Paul Davids
(44-20) 7325-5119
jp.davids@jpmorgan.com
Jerry Dellis
(44-20) 7325-5534
jeremy.a.dellis@jpmorgan.com
Daniel Morris
(44-20) 7325-9788
daniel.x.morris@jpmorgan.com
Hannes Wittig
(44-20) 7325-8310
hannes.c.wittig@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd.
For specialist sales please contact
Alex Latham
(44-20) 7325-9396
alex.w.latham@jpmorgan.com
See page 49 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision. Customers of J.P. Morgan in the United States can receive independent, third-party research on the company or companies
covered in this report, at no cost to them, where such research is available. Customers can access this independent research at
www.morganmarkets.com or can call 1-800-477-0406 toll free to request a copy of this research.
In this note we provide our 4Q08 forecasts. Our quarterly trading calls
are independent of our mid and longer term stock recommendations.
Overall we expect European Telcos to deliver results inline with their 08
expectations, with 09 to demonstrate resilience; we do however highlight
risk to guidance among some stocks.
• Positive on the sector, following 4Q outperformance. The sector
outperformed 17% in 4Q08, and this has continued into 1Q09 (+2%)
despite slight underperformance in the period in previous years. We
believe that in the current macro-economic climate, a solid Telecom
reporting season will be supportive of our continued positive sector
view. We see limited risk to 2008 guidance.
• Guidance and shareholder returns will be in focus. Telcos have a
history of guiding conservatively for the year ahead, and although so far
we have not seen a material negative macro impact on operations, we
see no exception this year (we see some risk at TEF, Swisscom, FT, BT,
VOD, and TKA). We note however that some have already given a 2009
outlook, limiting the chance of disappointment (DT, OTE, TI). We look
for solid dividend trends to continue.
• Pricing power – sign of resilience. We note recent pricing increases in
Portugal, Italy and the UK, and a noticeable easing of competitive
pressure in key markets; we look for evidence of this in numbers. The
unwinding of roaming cuts will make for easier comps in Q4.
• Main Q4 trading calls. Our key positive trading ideas are Telefonica,
Virgin Media, KPN, TeliaSonera and OTE. We are taking a cautious
stance on Swisscom, Elisa, Versatel and United Internet.
Active J.P. Morgan Q4 Trading Calls
Operator Q4 Trading Call Date Reason
Telefonica Positive 26 February We believe investors will welcome a strong dividend and confident outlook
KPN Positive 27 January Solid results and confident outlook
TeliaSonera Positive 11 February Revenues/EBITDA should be boosted by forex and acquisitions
OTE Positive TBC Strong operating momentum, still taking market share
Virgin Media Positive TBC Solid results giving confidence in forecasts
Swisscom Cautious 4 March We see risk to 2008 guidance and Fastweb could disappoint
Elisa Cautious 13 February We see risk to achieving 2008 and 2009 EBITDA targets
Versatel Cautious 19 March Residential business should go ex growth plus 08 EBITDA looks challenging
United Internet Cautious 21 March Slowdown visible - recently downgraded guidance looks a stretch
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Table of Contents
Our Q4 calls ..............................................................................3
Guidance in focus ....................................................................5
KPN (27 January)......................................................................8
Vodafone (3 February) .............................................................9
Mobistar (5 February).............................................................10
Tele2 (10 February).................................................................11
Telenor (11 February).............................................................13
TeliaSonera (11 February) .....................................................15
Eutelsat (10 February)............................................................17
BT (12 February) .....................................................................18
Iliad (12 February/19 March) ..................................................20
Elisa (13 February) .................................................................21
SES (13 February)...................................................................22
Portugal Telecom (18 February)............................................23
Telenet (23 February) .............................................................24
Telefonica (26 February) ........................................................25
Fastweb (26 February) ...........................................................27
QSC (26 February) ..................................................................28
Deutsche Telekom (27 February) ..........................................29
Telecom Italia (27 February) ..................................................31
Jazztel (27 Feb, TBC)..............................................................32
TA (Investor day 29 Jan, Q4 25 Feb).....................................33
France Telecom (4 March) .....................................................34
Swisscom (4 March)...............................................................35
Bouygues (4 March) ...............................................................36
Belgacom (6 March) ...............................................................37
Zon (6 March)..........................................................................38
Sonaecom (9 March) ..............................................................39
Inmarsat (12 March)................................................................40
United Internet (26 March) .....................................................42
OTE (Date TBC).......................................................................43
Virgin Media (Date TBC).........................................................45
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