发帖
雷达卡
Latam Food & Beverage
2009 earnings/industry outlook
(revised ratings/targets)
Jose Yordan
Research Analyst
(1) 212 250-5528
jose.yordan@db.com
CCU and ABV top picks: cautious on KOF/FMX, AKOb and GMODELOC
With this report, and after revising estimates and targets to reflect new macro
assumptions and taking into account recent moves in the various stocks in our
coverage universe, we are downgrading KOF (from Hold to Sell), FMX (from Buy
to Hold), AKOb (from Buy to Sell); and on the other hand, upgrading ARCA.MX
(from Hold to Buy). CCU and ABV (already Buy-rated) remain our top picks, even in
the event of moderate additional increases in country risk (versus a base case
assumption of small reductions from current levels).
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Forecast change
Top picks
Ambev (ABV.N),USD40.41 Buy
CCU (CCU.N),USD30.79 Buy
Companies featured
Ambev (ABV.N),USD40.41 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (BRL) 7.00 8.19 9.08
P/E (x) 18.0 11.4 10.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.7 7.1 6.5
CCU (CCU.N),USD30.79 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (CLP) 248.66 284.33 322.08
P/E (x) 14.5 13.3 11.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4 7.5 6.5
Femsa (FMX.N),USD28.94 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (MXN) 2.38 1.94 2.43
P/E (x) 17.0 21.1 16.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.9 7.5 6.3
Grupo Modelo (GMODELOC.MX),MXN36.88 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (MXN) 2.92 2.80 2.45
P/E (x) 19.0 13.1 15.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.4 6.5 6.9
Embotelladora Andina (AKOb.N),USD14.29 Sell
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (CLP) 107.33 137.41 120.14
P/E (x) 15.6 10.7 12.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.2 5.9 6.5
Coca-Cola Femsa (KOF.N),USD36.94 Sell
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (MXN) 3.74 2.99 4.28
P/E (x) 12.1 17.5 12.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 6.8 6.1
Arca (ARCA.MX),MXN25.20 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (MXN) 3.08 3.46 3.40
P/E (x) 12.9 7.3 7.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.9 4.6 4.3
Grupo Bimbo (BIMBOA.MX),MXN50.00 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (MXN) 3.24 3.89 4.82
P/E (x) 18.7 12.9 10.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.5 6.0 6.0
Gruma (GMK.N),USD1.80 Sell
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (MXN) 4.64 -14.63 -3.90
P/E (x) 8.0 – –
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.0 3.5 3.9
This report changes ratings, price
targets, and/or estimates for several
companies under coverage. For a
detailed listing of these changes, see
fig. 1 to the left and fig. 5 on p. 5.
Global Markets Research Company
New macro assumptions reflect only some moderation from recent extremes
Our new estimates are based on Mexican peso assumptions of P13.50/USD for
year-end 2009 and 2010, versus previous estimates of P12.50 for 2009 and P12.80
for 2010. Similarly, we have changed our Chilean peso assumptions to 640/USD
and 644/USD for ‘09 and ‘10, respectively, versus 653 and 660 previously. For
Brazil our new estimates of R$2.15/USD for ’09 and R$2.25/USD for ’10 compare
to the previous R$2.00 and R$2.10. On top of that, our GDP growth forecast for
Mexico declined to -0.5% for ‘09 (down from +0.9%) whereas for Chile it declined
to 2.4%, (from 3.3%) and for Brazil it declined to 1.5%, (from 2.9%). Lastly, our
country risk-free rate estimate for Mexico is now 5.5% (versus 6.25% previously),
while we now use 4.5% (from 5.6%) for Chile and 5.75% (from 7.25%) for Brazil.
Figure 1: Summary of target and rating changes
Last 3M 1/26/09 % % Total
Company PT Old PT New % Chg % Chg Price Upside Div. Yld. Return Rating
AmBev $59.00 $59.00 0% 5% $40.41 46.0% 7.4% 53.4% Maintain BUY
CCU $35.50 $44.00 24% 15% $30.79 42.9% 4.7% 47.6% Maintain BUY
FEMSA $32.50 $35.00 8% 29% $28.94 20.9% 1.3% 22.2% Buy-->HOLD
Grupo Modelo 4 0.00 44.00 10% -3% 3 6.88 19.3% 2.6% 21.9% Maintain HOLD
Andina $13.25 $13.00 -2% 25% $14.29 -9.0% 7.8% -1.3% Buy-->SELL
Coke FEMSA $28.25 $31.50 12% 24% $36.94 -14.7% 1.2% -13.5% Hold-->SELL
ARCA 3 2.00 30.50 -5% -12% 2 5.20 21.0% 8.7% 29.8% Hold-->BUY
Grupo Bimbo 5 8.50 58.00 -1% -8% 5 0.00 16.0% 2.3% 18.3% Maintain HOLD
Gruma $2.00 $1.69 -16% -42% $1.80 -6.1% 0.0% -6.1% Maintain SELL
Source: Deutsche Bank
Valuation & risks
Our target prices are based on EBITDA multiples, supplemented with DCF. Both
these methods use a two-stage approach that considers each company’s (or unit
within a company) free cash flow growth, ROIC and WACC, among other factors.
See pages 12, 14, 16, 18, 20, 22, 24, 26, and 28 for details on our valuation
approach for each company. Risks include, but are not limited to, any deterioration
in the political or economic situation in the countries of operation, currency and
input cost fluctuations, price competition, concentrate price increases (in the case
of Coke bottlers), and potential changes in taxation. Upside risks over the next 12
months stem mostly from any potential improvement in country risk and/or
currencies (beyond what we already estimate) as well as any takeover activity.
Table of Contents
Updating Targets & Ratings (on new macro assumptions)........... 3
New macro assumptions: weaker FX, but slightly lower WACCs.............................................3
On average, estimates revised down 2-3% at operating level..................................................3
Impact on targets and ratings ...................................................................................................4
LatAm beverage valuations in the global context .....................................................................6
Raw material costs on the wane, providing earnings cushion ..................................................7
2009 M&A outlook............................................................................. 9
Coke system consolidation possible, but not visible yet...........................................................9
Food sector consolidation likely to continue.............................................................................9
Beer: all eyes on AmBev and Grupo Modelo............................................................................9
Company Snapshots ....................................................................... 12
AmBev: Top pick—but wait until potential 4Q08 weakness ...................................................12
CCU: Top pick—buy ahead of 4Q08 earnings.........................................................................14
FEMSA: moderate upside/earnings risk lead to neutral risk-reward........................................16
Grupo Modelo: limited downside, but higher-than-average risk .............................................18
Embotelladora Andina: recent rally leads to unattractive risk-reward......................................20
Coca-Cola FEMSA: high valuation and market share risk—sell into 4Q08 strength ................22
ARCA: compelling valuation despite illiquidity—buy ahead of potential 4Q08 surprise..........24
Grupo Bimbo: recent U.S. deal keeps us on the sidelines ......................................................26
Gruma: still hanging by a thread..............................................................................................28
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