德意志银行:美国个人护理行业研究报告2009年1月

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Lowering the bar
HPC industry 2009 outlook and
4Q preview
Bill Schmitz Jr
Research Analyst
(+1) 203 863-2285
william.schmitz@db.com
Faiza Alwy
Research Associate
(+1) 212 250-6173
faiza.alwy@db.com
Lowering the bar
December quarter sales and earnings trends should be uninspiring as combination
of inventory destocking and consumption declines, negative currency and
consumer trade down prevail - but that should come as a surprise to few. More
importantly and given the uncertain environment, FY09 guidance for most names
should be below consensus, which we view as a good start to get investors
interested in the group again and set the stage for a beat and raise environment.
Maintain market perform until the dust settles.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Forecast change
Top picks
Energizer (ENR.N),USD47.38 Buy
Newell Rubbermaid (NWL.N),USD8.83 Buy
Companies featured
ACCO Brands (ABD.N),USD2.94 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 1.37 0.77 0.58
P/E (x) 16.3 3.8 5.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.4 4.7 4.7
Alberto-Culver (ACV.N),USD24.60 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 1.25 1.33 1.51
P/E (x) 20.7 18.5 16.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.0 8.7 7.7
Avon (AVP.N),USD20.25 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 1.77 2.04 1.85
P/E (x) 21.2 9.9 11.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.5 6.2 6.8
Church & Dwight (CHD.N),USD53.64 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 2.41 2.86 3.25
P/E (x) 20.2 18.8 16.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.0 10.3 8.8
Colgate-Palmolive (CL.N),USD63.54 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 3.37 3.82 4.08
P/E (x) 20.6 16.6 15.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.7 10.5 10.0
Clorox (CLX.N),USD51.36 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 3.24 3.71 4.13
P/E (x) 18.4 13.8 12.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.1 8.9 8.0
Estee Lauder (EL.N),USD26.11 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 2.41 1.58 1.98
P/E (x) 18.3 16.5 13.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.9 7.4 6.1
Energizer (ENR.N),USD47.38 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 6.10 5.21 5.95
P/E (x) 15.1 9.1 8.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.7 7.1 6.3
Physicians Formula (FACE.OQ),USD3.47 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 0.65 0.45 0.46
P/E (x) 24.2 7.7 7.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.6 4.2 3.8
Kimberly-Clark (KMB.N),USD53.22 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 4.25 4.16 4.37
P/E (x) 16.3 12.8 12.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.4 8.6 8.2
Newell Rubbermaid (NWL.N),USD8.83 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
EPS (USD) 1.82 1.20 0.99
P/E (x) 15.9 7.4 8.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.0 6.5 7.2
Procter & Gamble (PG.N),USD57.73 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 3.64 4.23 4.07
P/E (x) 18.6 13.6 14.2
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.7 10.7 9.7
Global Markets Research Company
2009 Outlook and 4Q08 preview
Stress testing earnings for the group, we believe estimates still need to come
down to reflect downside case scenarios, which may lead to short-term weakness
in the stocks but provide a solid foundation for investors to build positions,
especially since few management teams will be rewarded for aggressive
assumptions in this environment. Combination of lack of credit, distributor, retailer
and consumer destocking and negative currency ahead of full raw material
deflation could make for a lousy group 4Q, but lowered expectations should allow
mean reversion trade to resurface once the bar is lowered.
Lowering estimates for most, price targets for some
We have lowered 4Q and FY09 estimates for ACCO Brands, Avon, Colgate,
Church & Dwight, Estee Lauder and Kimberly-Clark, having already lowered EPS
for Energizer, Newell and P&G. Moreover, we have lowered price targets on
Avon, ACCO Brands, Colgate, Estee Lauder and Kimberly-Clark. See page 12 for
further details on these revisions.
Valuation supports market perform view on group
We value the group using a hybrid industry DCF/relative multiple methodology to
support our market perform view. Our industry DCF (assuming 0.3 points of
annual operating margin improvement, 8.5% WACC) suggests stocks are 25%
undervalued. On a relative multiple basis, PC group is trading well above its 10-
year average while HP group is trading slightly below, noting that consensus
forward S&P earnings are too high, making relative earnings less relevant. Risks
to the downside include pricing abatement, slowing emerging markets growth,
consumption slowdown in developed markets, private label growth and rising
unemployment. Upside risks are better than expected pricing, low investor
expectations and further moderation in input costs. See pages 18-20 for further
detail on valuation and risks.

Table of Contents
Earnings quick reference...........................................................................................................3
Lowering the bar ............................................................................... 4
Waiting for expectations to fall before jumping in the pool ......................................................4
2009 Outlook ............................................................................................................................4
December quarter preview .......................................................................................................7
Estimate and price target changes..........................................................................................12
Summary quarterly expectations and 2009 outlook................................................................13
Management guidance summary ...........................................................................................16
Valuation ................................................................................................................................18
Comparable public company analysis .....................................................................................20
Risks ......................................................................................................................................20
Company detail................................................................................ 21
ACCO Brands.........................................................................................................................21
Alberto-Culver .........................................................................................................................25
Avon Products ........................................................................................................................28
Church & Dwight ....................................................................................................................33
Colgate-Palmolive ...................................................................................................................36
Clorox Company......................................................................................................................40
Energizer ................................................................................................................................44
Estee Lauder..........................................................................................................................48
Kimberly-Clark .........................................................................................................................52
Newell-Rubbermaid ................................................................................................................56
Physicians Formula .................................................................................................................59
Procter & Gamble ...................................................................................................................61

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