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The European civil aerospace sector has
outperformed by 34% in the past 6 months
We conclude this has been driven partly by
reassuring 2009 delivery forecasts from Airbus
and Boeing, and partly by exogenous factors
We reiterate our Underweight rating on EADS (TP
EUR12.8), and Overweight on Rolls Royce (TP
GBp400p)
Has this thing gone far enough?
This is the latest edition of our quarterly publication, the Aerospace
Quarterly, which tracks the major data series for the commercial
aerospace segment, alongside our updated aerospace industry forecasts.
The European civil aerospace sector has outperformed the wider market by
34% in the past 6 months. In this Aerospace Quarterly we consider what has
driven the rally, and what could produce further outperformance.
We conclude that 1) the European aerospace sector has performed in part due
to currency moves, 2) the airframe manufacturers have surprised the markets
by refusing to capitulate in their assessment of the robustness of their order
backlogs, 3) the falling oil price over the past 6 months has reduced the
chance of major airline bankruptcies.
We believe that in the short term, with the market no longer pricing in a rerun
of 2001, there is now reduced scope for upside surprises from the
European results season. We reiterate our Overweight rating on Rolls Royce,
which we believe is structurally best positioned amongst our large cap
Aerospace coverage. We reiterate our Underweight rating on EADS, as we
believe that further execution issues could continue to weigh.
目录
Has this thing gone far
enough? 3
Overview 3
Share rally 3
Downside risks to the cycle 4
Stock-specific conclusions 4
Top pick Rolls-Royce 4
EADS (Underweight, target EUR12.8) 5
Rally in aerospace stocks: Oil price, FX, and reassurances
from Airbus / Boeing 7
How the order backlog has held up 8
Some reasons why the 2008 downturn has not proved to be
anything like 2001 9
Conclusions for the quarter 10
Outlook for results season 10
Conclusions for the quarter 10
Industry data pages 11
Aircraft orderbook developments 12
Aircraft ordering trends 13
Aircraft delivery trends 14
Aircraft deliveries by region 15
Regional Traffic Trends: North America 16
Regional Traffic Trends: Europe 17
Regional traffic trends: Asia/Pacific 18
Yield and Fuel Price Trends: North America 19
Aircraft engine trends 20
Engine maker market shares by major aircraft
programme 21
Stock valuations: airframers and equipment makers
(based on consensus estimates) 22
Appendix tables 23
Glossary 25
Disclosure appendix 43
Disclaimer 47
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