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With this report, we are initiating sector coverage on global
exchanges. The outlook for trading volumes may be discouraging, but
exchanges could still surprise on the upside – the clearing market is
moving, with clearing of OTC products seen as a promising growth
segment. Finally, exchange M&A may not be dead. The best place to
benefit from this trend is still Deutsche Börse, in our view, while we
would still stay away from DFM, where more downside is feared.
Trading volumes
We think the outlook for trading volumes in equities and derivatives is better than sentiment suggests. It’s
true we expect the value of trading to drop on all the major exchanges in Europe. But we think the
number of trades will rise at Deutsche Börse and the London Stock Exchange, while the outlook for
derivatives trading is not entirely negative. Although volumes in fixed-income products may be hurt by
banks de-leveraging their balance sheets, trading in equity and index products should be relatively stable.
Clearing market
The clearing market is moving as well. Several listed exchanges like Deutsche Börse, Nasdaq OMX and
NYSE Euronext see growth opportunities in the clearing business, not only in listed equities and
derivatives, but more and more in over-the-counter products. Banks are looking for the service as they
come under growing regulatory pressure to move at least the clearing of OTC products onto regulated
exchange platforms. However, hopes for a working platform by the end of 2008 were too optimistic. We
now see four contenders for exchange-based clearing of OTC derivatives.
Impact of credit crunch on exchange M&A
A lot of market participants believe the M&A market is dead for the time being. But some senior
exchange executives like Duncan Niederauer, the CEO of NYSE Euronext, say that this is still a
consolidating industry. This supports our view that we could see more M&A activity in 2009. A big-bang
deal may still be unlikely, but we feel smaller deals are coming soon.
Our global exchange coverage
We now cover six of the 10 major global exchanges:
BM&F Bovespa
December trading data was slightly better than our conservative expectations. We believe 2009 should
bring better trading conditions, given our expectations for interest rates cuts in Brazil. The potential
synergic savings and its unleveraged balance sheet make BM&F Bovespa an attractive investment
opportunity. We reiterate our Overweight (V) rating with an unchanged target price of BRL8.
Deutsche Börse
The outlook for 2009 is getting bleaker, and to reflect a weak start for trading activity, we are cutting our
forecasts. But Deutsche Börse remains the most diversified and best positioned global exchange group.
We see promising fundamental upside of 54% to our target price of EUR63, reduced from EUR86, and
confirm our Overweight (V) rating; it remains the top pick in our sector coverage.
Dubai Financial Markets
Looking at the tough operating environment for DFM, we think that volumes will remain under pressure.
As possible triggers seem priced in and stock is trading at high multiples, we maintain our Underweight
(V) rating and a target price of AED0.80.
Hellenic Exchanges
HELEX’s net cash position of EUR129m at end-2009e, by our estimates, now stands at 41% of market
cap, while our central case assumes average daily trading of just EUR160m for 2009e compared with
EUR250m before and EUR316m in 2008a. We thus maintain our Overweight (V) rating with a target
price of EUR7.45.
London Stock Exchange
By merging with Borsa Italiana, management transformed the horizontal business model into a diversified
exchange group. However, we are cutting forecasts to reflect the weaker start of the year. We lower our
target price to 770p from 900p, but we still see a convincing fundamental upside of 58% and stick to our
Overweight (V) rating.
NYSE Euronext
NYSE Euronext is a diversified exchange company, but the majority of revenues still comes from cash
equities business. We see some small but promising growth initiatives that could provide triggers in the
future but lack scale for now. We initiate our coverage with a target price of USD24 and, seeing 10%
potential return, we rate the stock a Neutral (V).
目录
Exchange Examiner: The
global exchange world –
virtuous or vicious volumes? 4
European cash trading 4
The ‘rise’ of MTFs 4
Outlook for cash trading 6
Dark pools 6
Emerging markets exchanges 7
Dubai Financial Markets 7
BM&F Bovespa 7
Derivatives 8
Volume trend in 2008 8
Outlook 8
Clearing market 9
Cash equities clearing 9
Clearing of OTC derivative products 9
Impact of credit crunch on
exchanges M&A 10
Sector valuation 12
Company profiles 15
BM&F Bovespa 16
Deutsche Börse 21
Dubai Financial Markets 28
Hellenic Exchanges 34
London Stock Exchange 40
NYSE Euronext 47
Disclosure appendix 60
Disclaimer 63
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