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Continued bearish outlook for markets
Whilst markets are already factoring in a negative outlook, it is now a question of
degree. We do not believe the recent rebound momentum is sustainable. The
primary trend remains one of pressure on earnings and GDP expectations. The
alpha that investors extracted last year from sector and country calls was one of
the lowest since the early 1990s. We expect this to continue in 1H09 as
dispersion tends to collapse in Asia when markets remain distressed (see page 4).
We believe that selective stock picking based on generic factors such as earnings
visibility and low balance sheet risks, as opposed to country/sector allocation, is
likely to be this year’s primary source of alpha.
Index targets suggest more downside; MXASJ cut 9%
Our new index targets project a bearish outlook, reflecting DB’s view of continued
macroeconomic erosion, downgrades to ROE/earnings and a slightly higher cost
of equity assumption. Our year-end target for the MSCI Asia ex-Japan has been
reduced by 9%, implying 11.8% downside from current levels, with the index
trading down to a P/B of 1.1x vs. 1.3x currently. This puts the index at 10x 2010F
EPS, a 33% discount to the five-year trailing average. Markets appear inexpensive
relative to history, but this view is vulnerable to material downside risks to
earnings and return forecasts.
Earnings revisions moderating, but early days; downside risk still dominant
Earnings estimates have been cut, but it was only as recently as December 2008
that consensus reflected a yoy drop in earnings for 2009F. Ongoing earnings
downgrades still shadow what appears to be a bottoming revision ratio. Our
bottom-up estimates indicate that EPS has contracted 17% in 2008F, will drop
13% in 2009F, and rise by 19% in 2010F. This suggests that by 2010F, earnings
will only be down 14% from 2007 - the cycle peak. Forecasts of flat EBITDA
margins from 2008F look optimistic.
China the big Overweight call; Taiwan and Korea still Underweight
Key country changes include a downgrade to Indonesia to Neutral due to recent
earning estimate decreases. The Philippines rating has also been upgraded a notch
to Neutral. We maintain India at Neutral. We maintain Underweight on cyclical
Korea and Taiwan and stress higher earnings/macro risks for the former. Buoyed
by low sovereign risks, we maintain a relatively positive view on China (OW). We
remain Underweight on Malaysia and Overweight on Thailand. Sector views still
reflect a continued bear environment. Telecoms remain the preferred sector, a
function of defensive cash flows. Financials are a funding source, with DB analysts
remaining broadly Underweight on both Banks and Real Estate. We upgrade
Utilities from Neutral.
Table of Contents
Slow, steady erosion ahead ............................................................. 4
Country pages.................................................................................. 37
Country view – China ...................................................................... 39
Sector recommendations ............................................................... 40
Country view – Hong Kong............................................................. 45
Sector recommendations ............................................................... 46
Country view – India ....................................................................... 51
Sector recommendations ............................................................... 52
Country view – Indonesia ............................................................... 57
Sector recommendations ............................................................... 58
Country view – Korea ...................................................................... 63
Sector recommendations ............................................................... 64
Country view – Malaysia................................................................. 69
Sector recommendations ............................................................... 70
Country view – Philippines ............................................................. 75
Sector recommendations ............................................................... 76
Country view – Singapore .............................................................. 81
Sector recommendations ............................................................... 82
Country view – Taiwan ................................................................... 87
Sector recommendations ............................................................... 88
Country view – Thailand ................................................................. 93
Sector recommendations ............................................................... 94
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