摩根大通：全球汽车行业研究报告2009年3月

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March issue highlights …
• Valuation wrap up: Auto stocks globally continue to trade near historic lows. On
09E EV/Sales, European auto stocks now trade at an average 20% (trough: 20%),
Japanese auto stocks trade at 46% (trough 40%), Korean 34% (trough 17%) and
US at 39% (trough 16%). Based on historic EV/Sales average, we find the major
German OEM stocks (BMW, DAI, VW prefs) attractive, currently trading at a
discount of 54% to their long term EV/Sales average, followed by Korean OEMs
(35% discount), Japanese OEMs (33%). The Europe Mass market OEMs (ex VW)
are trading at a 14% discount to their average while US OEMs are currently
trading at a premium of 27% to their LT EV/Sales average.
• Europe: We retain our cautious view on European auto stocks near-term given
European demand levels that are yet to stabilize, and likely increasing supplier
distress (which may require better payment terms/capital injections from OEMs).
We prefer companies with US exposure (on the likelihood of an earlier recovery
in the SAAR there), and better balance sheet cushion. Prefer Daimler.
• US: GM bankruptcy risk seems higher vs. a few months ago; we think it is still the
most likely outcome given political constraints. Liquidity challenges at Ford (while
not immediate) cannot be ruled out either absent a sizeable volume recovery. We
recommend that investors stay on the sidelines on both stocks near-term.
• Japan: Indications that production cuts are set to ease in the near term against a
backdrop of somewhat over-pessimistic industry earnings forecasts have ushered
in a cyclical upturn in share prices. However, we believe a trigger in the form of
even brighter economic prospects, full-scale yen weakness, or convincing industry
realignment will be required for share prices to rise significantly higher.
• Korea: We favor Hyundai, which should benefit given its favorable mix (to enter
favourable product cycle from 3Q09 onwards with traditional best sellers in
pipeline), geographical exposure (increasing US market share on back of
incentives) and currency benefits (Won continues to remain weak against US$).

Table of Contents
March issue highlights … ........................................................................................................1
Sector valuation summary.......................................................................................................5
Regional valuation – Europe and US......................................................................................9
Regional valuation - Japan and global .................................................................................10
Europe - BMW (BMW GR) - Neutral Current price

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关键词：汽车行业研究报告 行业研究报告 研究报告 摩根大通 行业研究 研究报告 行业 全球 汽车 摩根大通

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