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Regional auto industry highlights
Regional Autos Team
Frank LiAC
(852) 2800-8511
frank.m.li@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
Wenwen Wang
(852) 2800-8501
wenwen.x.wang@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
Bharat Iyer
(91-22) 6639-3005
bharat.x.iyer@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan India Private Limited
Nick Lai
(886-2) 2725-9864
nick.yc.lai@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Taiwan) Limited.
Jon Oh
(60-3) 2270-4730
jon.t.oh@jpmorgan.com
JPMorgan Securities (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd.
(18146-X)
Aditya Srinath, CFA
(62-21) 5291-8573
aditya.s.srinath@jpmorgan.com
PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia
Wan Sun Park
(82-2) 758-5722
wansun.c.park@jpmorgan.com
J.P. Morgan Securities (Far East) Limited
See page 33 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may
have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
Aggregate SAAR sales volume in Asia
Million units
0
5
10
15
20
25
CY01
CY02
CY03
CY04
CY05
CY06
CY07
CY08
Japan ex. Japan
Source: JAMA, KAMA, CAAM, SIAM, China Motor,
Hotai Motor, Taiwan Economic Journal.
Key items this month
• What is changing? We analyze: (1) China’s stronger-than-expected car
sales in January 2009 resulting in car inventory at end-January dropping
to the lowest level in the past 13 months, and the government’s new
initiative to expand the auto financing business to boost car sales in
China; (2) the rising US market share of Korean auto manufacturers due
to aggressive marketing; (3) the reduction in automobile ownership costs
in India due to easing credit and the fall in fuel prices; (4) the impact of
the appreciating yen on Taiwanese auto producers; and (5) TCM’s
strong FY08 results, with its net profit of M$285 million reaching a
record high in Malaysia.
• Information: We discuss: (1) the stimulus package released by the
Chinese government to boost auto demand, the expected 100bp
reduction in VAT on second-hand vehicle transactions, and the
aggressive FY09 sales targets set by FAW Toyota and Shanghai GM; (2)
the impact of the weakening Won on HMC’s margins in Korea; (3) the
launch of well positioned Mahindra Xylo and Bajaj XCD 135cc models
in India; (4) the cut in the commodity tax for hybrid cars in Taiwan,
which could help save consumers NT$100,000 on hybrid car purchases;
and (5) the marked rise in four-wheeler channel inventories in Indonesia.
• Non-consensus calls: (1) We are Underweight on UMW, as opposed to
the relatively upbeat consensus view on the stock, because: (1) our TIV
forecast for 2009 is 15% lower than the MAA guidance of 480,000 units.
In FY09, we expect Toyota’s volume to fall 25% Y/Y and Perodua’s
volume to decline 15% Y/Y; and (2) we expect the group-level operating
margin to be reduced from 8.3% to 5.4% due to the heightening pressure
on its selling prices and rising yen cost.
W: What is changing?
In this section, analysts summarize the changing trends in the industry or
regulatory changes in the various markets in the region.
China
Change 1: China Association of Auto Manufacturing (CAAM) recently released
Jan-09 sales figures
According to CAAM, in Jan-09 China sold 735,500 units, down 0.83% M/M, and
down 14.35% Y/Y. China’s passenger vehicle sales in Jan-09 were up 4.43% M/M,
and down 7.77% Y/Y, and commercial vehicles sales were 125,100, down 20.35%
M/M, and down 36.46% Y/Y.
Among China’s passenger vehicle sales in Jan-09, sedan sales were at 439,200, down
2.93% M/M and 12.35% Y/Y; MPV sales were at 11,900, down 14.58% M/M, and
down 30.34% Y/Y; SUV sales were at 30,100, down 25.86% M/M, and down 1.47%
Y/Y; and the cross-over vehicle sales were at 129,300, up 66.55% M/M, and up
14.19% Y/Y.
China’s top 10 car producers in January 2009 were:
(1) Shanghai VW with sales of 40,000,
(2) FAW VW with sales of 38,800,
(3) Shanghai GM with sales of 32,700,
(4) Beijing Hyundai with sales of 32,600,
(5) DongFeng Nissan with sales of 26,300,
(6) Chery with sales of 25,300,
(7) Guangzhou Honda with sales of 21,600,
(8) Geely with sales of 20,400,
(9) FAW Toyota with sales of 19,200, and
(10) BYD with sales of 18,600.
Among China’s passenger vehicle producers, relative underperformers were
Shanghai GM, FAW VW, Shanghai VW, Chery, and Geely, which all suffered a Y/Y
drop in sales in Jan-09, while Guangzhou Honda saw above-average Y/Y growth rate
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