[下载]CIMB - China Banks

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309885.pdf (562.95 KB, 需要: 4 个论坛币)

2009-3-30 21:26:00 上传

[下载]CIMB - China Banks
需要: 4 个论坛币  [购买]

Issuer:CIMB

33 pages

Language:English

Format:PDF

Snapshot:

• 4Q08 – tipping point in earnings. H-share banks will begin to report FY08 results
this week. We expect these banks’ 4Q08 EPS decline to average 27% yoy and 50%
qoq. The quarter was the tipping point for the sector’s earnings as NIMs started to
head south while credit costs began their ascent.
• Unexciting outlook for FY09. Recent economic data point to a bleak 1Q09.
Upcoming negative economic data releases may serve as downside catalysts for
the sector. Although there is much optimism about a sharp GDP rebound in 2H09,
the sector’s earnings will still suffer in FY09. We agree that China’s stimulus
package and liquidity injection will lessen NPL formation pressure for banks.
However, we still expect NPLs to creep up for export-dependent sectors that cannot
easily divert capacity towards the domestic market. Regulators are also guiding for
more stringent provisioning ratios, adding to the sector’s credit cost pressure. Lastly,
growth of loans and assets has been faster than expected but at the expense of
NIM.
• Maintain NEUTRAL weighting on sector. The liquidity injection evident from the
rapid loan growth during Jan-Feb has infused some excitement into the sector.
However, we believe it is still too early to overweight PRC banks as downside risks
remain. Among the H-share banks, we continue to prefer China Construction Bank
and China Merchants Bank, which are our only Outperforms in the sector at this
juncture.
• Downgrading CNCB and BOC to Neutral. Citic Bank and Bank of China have
both outperformed the sector since the beginning of this year. This was within
expectations as we had Outperform recommendations for both. However, we
believe both banks have limited share price upside, given their lacklustre ROE
which will limit re-rating potential in the near term. Therefore, we are downgrading
both banks from Outperform to NEUTRAL.

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