我在探讨人民币真实有效汇率的影响因素,影响因子为5个,其中一个是生产率。之前的一系列操作应该都没有问题。建立VAR模型时,我选择滞后区间为1 2 ,VAR模型也是平稳的。接着进行滞后长度测试,得到最优滞后长度为1,在JJ协整检验时,当滞后区间填1 1时(原因最优滞后长度为1),会得出生产率提高,人民币会贬值的错误结论。如果滞后区间填1 2时,得出的结论符合预期,但是最大特征值和Trace矛盾。那后面的VEC模型的滞后区间,我是填0 0 还是1 1 ?请高手给予解答,不胜感激!
Date: 05/21/16 Time: 14:38
Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2014Q4
Included observations: 58 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: INREER INGOV INNEP INNFA INOPEN INPROD
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 1
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.567546 131.1923 95.75366 0.0000
At most 1 * 0.430990 82.57201 69.81889 0.0034
At most 2 * 0.296003 49.86826 47.85613 0.0319
At most 3 0.230654 29.51132 29.79707 0.0539
At most 4 0.171558 14.30286 15.49471 0.0750
At most 5 0.056720 3.386759 3.841466 0.0657
Trace test indicates 3 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.567546 48.62024 40.07757 0.0043
At most 1 0.430990 32.70376 33.87687 0.0685
At most 2 0.296003 20.35694 27.58434 0.3170
At most 3 0.230654 15.20846 21.13162 0.2746
At most 4 0.171558 10.91610 14.26460 0.1584
At most 5 0.056720 3.386759 3.841466 0.0657
Date: 05/21/16 Time: 14:16
Sample (adjusted): 2000Q4 2014Q4
Included observations: 57 after adjustments
Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend
Series: INREER INGOV INNEP INNFA INOPEN INPROD
Lags interval (in first differences): 1 to 2
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Trace)
Hypothesized Trace 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None * 0.475446 122.3279 95.75366 0.0002
At most 1 * 0.407996 85.55109 69.81889 0.0017
At most 2 * 0.349982 55.66931 47.85613 0.0078
At most 3 * 0.238839 31.11625 29.79707 0.0351
At most 4 * 0.210568 15.56035 15.49471 0.0489
At most 5 0.035888 2.083198 3.841466 0.1489
Trace test indicates 5 cointegrating eqn(s) at the 0.05 level
* denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level
**MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis (1999) p-values
Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test (Maximum Eigenvalue)
Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05
No. of CE(s) Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob.**
None 0.475446 36.77679 40.07757 0.1124
At most 1 0.407996 29.88178 33.87687 0.1394
At most 2 0.349982 24.55306 27.58434 0.1165
At most 3 0.238839 15.55589 21.13162 0.2519
At most 4 0.210568 13.47716 14.26460 0.0663
At most 5 0.035888 2.083198 3.841466 0.1489