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The development of driverless and automated cars could shrink the size of the UK motor insurance market and force insurers to diversify, Standard & Poor’s has warned.
In a report on the impact of automation, the rating agency said the trend would reduce the frequency and severity of claims, pushing down premiums.
“It will be some time before these features become common, but when they do we expect a continuation in the trend of falling accidents,” said Robert Greensted, analyst at S&P.
The total number of vehicle miles driven has remained static in the UK over the past 15 years, but the number of people killed or seriously injured has almost halved.
According to KPMG estimates, by 2040 the personal automobile insurance sector could shrink to less than 40 per cent of its current size.
The arrival of completely driverless cars (without steering wheels or pedals) on the roads is still some way off — 20 years, according to Thatcham, an automotive research centre — but in the shorter term, more basic levels of automation are already having an impact.
“We are seeing some great benefits, especially in autonomous emergency braking, which leads to a reduction in accident frequency and a 40 per cent reduction in personal injury claims,” said Peter Shaw, chief executive of Thatcham. “We are calling for regulation of autonomous braking — we’d like to see it made a legal requirement.”
Almost three-quarters of cars launched last year had autonomous emergency braking as either standard or an optional extra.
While these developments have undoubted safety benefits, they create challenges for insurers. “We’ll need to know, at the time a car has a collision, who is in charge. Was the vehicle self-driving, or was the owner driving? The vehicle status — who is doing the driving — needs to be available to all insurers,” said Mr Shaw.
“Over the next 20 to 30 years we will see a shift from personal liability to product liability but perhaps not a complete shift,” he added.
The insurance industry is readying itself for a response. The Association of British Insurers, along with Thatcham and 11 insurers including Admiral, Direct Line, LV= and the Lloyd’s insurance market, has created a group to work with the government on the future of automated vehicle use.
The issues it will consider include liability after an accident, the use of data and potential changes to traffic laws. The group will be chaired by David Williams, head of underwriting at Axa.
S&P believes that, faced with the impact of automation, motor insurers will have to diversify into other businesses, including home, pet or gadget insurance.
But it is possible they will look further afield. “They may also look to non-insurance products. A number of insurers already own price comparison sites. They might also look into consumer finance — a lot of them offer premium finance already,” said S&P’s Mr Greensted.
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