瑞士信贷：美国交通运输行业研究报告2009年6月

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Heard on 24th Street
SECTOR REVIEW
Auto Volumes May Help Freight in 2H
■ In terms of reported data, we have yet to see any evidence of improvement
in the broader freight environment. Indeed, railroad carloads have actually
worsened sequentially from 1Q09. Similarly, the ATA trucking index saw the
largest year-over-year decline in 13 years during the month of April.
■ Interestingly though, some trucking companies have recently commented
that trends have stabilized in recent weeks. This could be a function of a
particular carrier’s end market or customer exposure. For example, our endmarket
analysis shows that inventories levels for retail and steel have
improved sequentially from the prior month, perhaps creating some room to
re-stock.
■ In other corners of the economy such as industrial orders, heavy-duty
equipment sales, and electricity, demand is still deteriorating.
■ One sector where recent trends have contained both good news and bad
news is automotive.
The good news:
o U.S. Sales (SAAR): Improved to 9.9 million in May vs. 9.3
million in April
o Big 3 Inventory: Improved to 14% over-stocked at end of May
vs. 29% at end of April
The bad news:
o Production: Dropped -45% (y/y) in May vs. -43% in April and -
38% in March
■ Looking ahead, this combination could produce an improvement in build
rates that would benefit freight carriers.
■ We believe total North American light vehicle production should decline
‘only’ about 15% in 3Q09 vs. 3Q08, which is in fact a big improvement from
the 42% decline in Q2 and the 52% decline in Q1. By Q4, auto output could
be about flat with the year ago build rate.
■ Further, if we annualize the 1st half build rate we think the industry was
producing at something just shy of a 7 million rate; by contrast, we think the
2H09 build rate could be close to 10 million.
■ This is good news in particular for the railroads, which have recently seen
automotive related carloads down 50% or more.
Investment Summary
In terms of reported data, we have yet to see any evidence of improvement in the broader
freight environment. Indeed, railroad carloads have actually worsened sequentially from
1Q09. Similarly, the ATA trucking index saw the largest year-over-year decline in 13 years
during the month of April.
Interestingly though, some trucking companies have recently commented that trends have
stabilized in recent weeks. This could be a function of a particular carrier’s end market or
customer exposure. For example, our end-market analysis shows that inventories levels
for retail and steel have improved sequentially from the prior month, perhaps creating
some room to re-stock.
In other corners of the economy such as industrial orders, heavy-duty equipment sales,
and electricity, demand is still deteriorating (Exhibit 1).
One sector where recent trends have contained both good news and bad news is
automotive.
The good news:
o U.S. Sales (SAAR): Improved to 9.9 million in May vs. 9.3 million in April
o Big 3 Inventory: Improved to 14% over-stocked at end of May vs. 29% at
end of April
The bad news:
o Production: Dropped -45% (y/y) in May vs. -43% in April and -38% in
March
Looking ahead, this combination could produce an improvement in build rates that would
benefit freight carriers.
We believe total North American light vehicle production should decline ‘only’ about
15% in 3Q09 vs. 3Q08, which is in fact a big improvement from the 42% decline in Q2 and
the 52% decline in Q1. By Q4, auto output could be about flat with the year ago build rate.
Further, if we annualize the 1st half build rate we think the industry was producing at
something just shy of a 7 million rate; by contrast, we think the 2H09 build rate could be
close to 10 million.
This is good news in particular for the railroads, which have recently seen automotive
related carloads down 50% or more. In fact, as we have highlighted in recent Keeping
Score: Weekly Railroad Update notes, extended shutdowns at GM and Chrysler have
driven the deterioration in supply over the past several weeks – which we expect to
continue over the next couple of months.

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院士  这个时间这么长了 是不是考虑降降价呀？