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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月俄罗斯交通运输行业研究报告
【作者】：ATON证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：79
【目录或简介】：
Transport: an attractive investment in the early stages of the economic cycle: Over the
2009 crisis year, the Russian transportation sector managed to demonstrate fairly decent
performance on the back of strengthening international demand for traditional Russian
export commodities. These include, inter alia, oil, metals, coal, ore and grain. Even
during the crisis, Russia’s diversified cargo transportation base has supported businesses
such as export‐oriented diversified ports and well‐positioned rolling stock railway
operators. At a disadvantage were transportation companies with niche market
positioning or those focusing on imports and purely domestic cargo volumes.
Nevertheless, the entire transportation sector, in our opinion, confirmed its role as a
relatively sensitive indicator of a slow but sure economic recovery. We believe that it is
the sector which will benefit directly from any upturn in natural resources exploration
(oil, ore, coal); industrial output – driven by both exports and domestic demand – and
also from the restoration of personal consumption levels and an unfreezing of corporate
capital investment programmes.
Transport in Russia has solid fundamentals for future growth, in our view: We believe
that the transport sector makes a disproportionately low contribution to Russian GDP
relative to the production sector’s fairly sizeable weighting. The ratio between the two is
approximately 9.6% in Russia, vs 12.1% in China and 16.2% in the US. In our opinion, this
leaves significant room for the Russian transport sector’s potential growth. Additionally,
Russia’s population airline mobility reached 35% in pre‐crisis 2008. This is on a par with
Brazil (37%), but much lower than in Korea (59%) or in major developed countries: Great
Britain (over 350%), the US (over 250%) and Germany (over 200%). The difference is
particularly notable if population mobility is compared with airline yield/GDP per capita.
This suggests either that there should be strong airline‐passenger‐traffic growth if there
is further expansion in per capita incomes, or improved airline yields – both directly
contributing to airline revenue growth. These fundamental factors lead us to believe that
the Russian transportation segment has significant latent growth potential.
Key inherent sector risks: The main risks we see are (1) the limitations of the existing
infrastructure’s throughput capacity, which in turn is dependent on the level of state
infrastructure spending; and (2) significant sector dependence on state tariff regulations
and state‐controlled access to transport infrastructure. We believe that further
liberalisation of these regulations could introduce further competition to the sector and
attract new investments, fuelling future long‐term growth.
We are bullish on the Russian transportation sector: We believe that the sector has
solid fundamentals for future growth and has a good chance to demonstrate strong early
cycle performance, on the back of a slow, but imminent economic recovery. In this
respect we recommend a diversified investment into the sector, obtaining exposure to
railways, ports, airlines and intermodal logistics. We believe this is best realisable
through shares such as Globaltrans (BUY; $15.54/GDR), NCSP (BUY; $16.02/GDR),
Aeroflot (BUY; $2.60/share) and FESCO (BUY; 0.44/share).
Contents
Investment Summary and Key Ratings: Riding the Economic Recovery ....................... 3
Sector drivers ............................................................................................................. 3
Sector specifics........................................................................................................... 5
Valuations ................................................................................................................. 8
Summary.................................................................................................................... 8
DCF valuation summary............................................................................................. 8
International valuation comparison ........................................................................ 11
Transportation Sector Overview............................................................................... 17
International transportation sector – summary outlook......................................... 17
Russian transportation sector.................................................................................. 20
Russian railroads transportation.............................................................................. 26
Russian ports............................................................................................................ 31
Russian shipping....................................................................................................... 36
Russian aviation sector ............................................................................................ 39
Globaltrans – Your Railcar Operator ......................................................................... 44
Investment case....................................................................................................... 44
Key model assumptions ........................................................................................... 45
Financial statements................................................................................................ 50
NCSP – Two in One: Attractive Growth and High Profitability ................................... 52
Investment case....................................................................................................... 52
Key model assumptions ........................................................................................... 53
Financial statements................................................................................................ 58
Aeroflot – Flying with a Profit................................................................................... 60
Investment case....................................................................................................... 60
Key model assumptions ........................................................................................... 61
Financial statements................................................................................................ 66
FESCO – Leading Multimodal Operator..................................................................... 68
Investment case....................................................................................................... 68
Key model assumptions ........................................................................................... 69
Financial statements................................................................................................ 76
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