2010年1月美国交通运输行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年1月美国交通运输行业研究报告
        【作者】：瑞士信贷
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：47
        【目录或简介】：

Our Heard on 24th Street survey continues to support our thesis that the
near-term freight expansion will be driven by strong gains in the
industrial economy, offset by lackluster consumer activity. While we still
expect a gradual recovery, there were some standouts in this month’s data
that may have positive implications for some transport companies – in some
cases providing an unanticipated boost to 4Q results.
■
There has been a significant uptick in activity on the West Coast ports –
particularly for exports, as the weak dollar is driving up demand for U.S.
goods. In fact, outbound container growth has increasingly outpaced
import container growth over the past few months Exhibit 1.
■
Strength in exports could translate into higher 4Q freight volumes –
particularly benefiting those carriers with West Coast port and/or global
exposure.
o One name that is particularly sensitive to import and export
activity is EXPD, which we are upgrading to Outperform from
Neutral. In a separate report, we review the trade-off between
higher volumes and revenues, and potentially lower margins.
Our analysis suggests the net effect will be positive.
o UNP could also surprise to the upside on the heels of
strengthening volumes throughout the quarter, helped by the
fact that about 10% of the company’s business is export driven.

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