2010年4月美国交通运输行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国交通运输行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：PPT
        【页数】：116
        【目录或简介】：
Insights from Over 500 US and Canadian Freight Shippers: Below we discuss conclusions from our 18th semi-annual shipper survey, the Freight Pulse, derived from rail, truck, and intermodal shippers representing over $7 billion in transportation spend.
Rail Highlights: 1) Volume Growth Expectations Improve Dramatically – Comparable to ’03/’04 Rebound; 2) Pricing Story Intact But Legacy Re-Pricing Opportunity Continues Diminishing; 3) Fuel Efficiency Continues to be Primary Driver of Rail Intermodal Usage; 4) Service Improvements Stalling – Volume Growth Could be One Reason; 5) Rate Negotiations Continue to Be Difficult for Shippers and Competition Remains Minimal
Truck Highlights: 1) Truck capacity is tightening quickly, esp. TL, with some fears of a capacity crunch later this year; 2) Shippers expect the volume recovery to continue; most strength in TL and intermodal 3) Shippers expect pricing recovery to be fairly modest over the next six months; 4) Shippers cite just-in-time as an obstacle to using intermodal, but this should be less of a concern during restocking; 5) Some shippers are returning to YRC, but slowly
Freight/Macro Highlights: 1) Shipper Economic Outlook Improving Substantially; 2) Restocking May Just Be Beginning; 3) Despite Aggressive TL Pricing, Intermodal Discounts Exist; 4) Modal Shift Continues to Favor Lower Price Options; 5) Little Progress on Closing the “Service Gap” Though Shippers Still See Value
Still constructive on freight, prefer heavy-asset plays. We expect freight volumes will continue to surprise to the upside, even after large 1Q10 EPS revisions. Given that, we recommend clients stay long heavy-asset transports like rails and parcel. Our shipper survey suggests that while trends are improving, a major restocking has not occurred. As confidence in the recovery grows and shippers begin to restock inventories in a more material way, we believe volume and pricing improvement should accelerate at cheaper surface- based modes likes rails and trucks. We would be positioned in surface transport stocks, especially the rails, for upcoming restocking

Table of Contents
Page
Railroads - Key Conclusions
3
Trucking - Key Conclusions
10
General Freight & Macro Highlights
18
APPENDIX
Thesis Summary
26
Comp Sheets
28
About the Survey
31
General Freight Trends:
General Freight Trends
37
Macro Trends
51
Railroads:
Railroad Thesis Chart
59
Key Rail Trends
62
Rail Special Topics
73
Trucks:
Key Truck Trends
80
Truck Special Topics
112

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关键词：行业研究报告 交通运输行业 研究报告 交通运输 行业研究 摩根斯坦利 研究报告 discuss 交通运输 derived

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