摩根大通：澳大利亚地产行业研究报告2009年7月

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Chart of the Week: The Australian office sector has
continued the 2008 trend with just 31 major transactions
so far this year for A$1.7 billion. Annualised, this is
51.6% below the long-term average. With 15% of total
office supply on the market, supply is not the issue, but
weak fundamentals, lack of credit and unrealistic price
expectations has kept buyers away. Not surprisingly,
A-REITs have been the most aggressive seller,
representing 54.3% of total sales, while private owners
and retail funds are the most aggressive buyers. While
the recent recapitalisation of the larger A-REITs could
drive a more opportunistic approach, asset values will
have to come down significantly to see returns exceed
the high cost of debt and (recently raised) equity. In the
absence of a strong demand-led recovery, we believe
distress in the listed and unlisted market is the most
likely driver for an increase in transaction volumes,
which is not great news for underlying asset values.

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