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Table of Contents
Investment summary................................................................3
The five forces for generators ......................................................................................3
What drives integrated power generator earnings? ......................................................3
Who’s guiding for what, and what does the market think?..........................................4
Investment conclusions................................................................................................6
Five forces update –guidance matters ...................................7
Forces 1 and 2: Commodity and macro-economic conditions .....................................7
Forces 3 and 4: Regulation and Politics.......................................................................9
Force 5: Corporate strategies .....................................................................................10
Testing guidance key for performance.................................11
Economic activity – Recessionary depth and length? ................................................11
Commodity prices – Mark-to-market, or more? ........................................................12
Currencies - Current or constant? ..............................................................................14
Regulation – How tight is the grip? ...........................................................................15
Other significant drivers ............................................................................................15
In conclusion – Prefer E.ON to CEZ and Iberia ........................................................17
E.ON.........................................................................................19
RWE.........................................................................................25
CEZ ..........................................................................................29
Iberdrola ..................................................................................34
EDP..........................................................................................39
International Power ................................................................45
Guidance, assumptions and consensus ..............................60
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