摩根斯坦利：印度宏观经济研究报告2009年5月

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Contents
Gradual Recovery Underway
I. Where Are We Now?
Aggregate Real Economic Variables - IP and Export Growth Still to Improve………………...……………………………………………………………………………………4
Private Corporate Capex – The Weakest Link………………………………..…………………………….…..…………………………….………….……..……………………5
Operating Leverage Will Still Be a Burden in F2010………………….…………………………………….…..…………………………….………….……..……………………6
Infrastructure Spending to Remain Supportive…………………………………………….…..…………………………….………….……..……………………7
Consumption Showing Signs of Improvement………………………………..……………………………………………....……………………………….………………8
II. What Is Helping Consumption Improvement ?
Is It Driven by Traditional Income Sources of Rural Demand ?....…………………………………...……….................................................………..….….……………......10
More Likely Fiscal Policy …………………………....……...…………………………………………...……….................................................………..….….…………….....11
and Monetary Policy .....................................................………...………………...………………………………………………………….....………..…..………………........12
III. What Will Be the Pace of Recovery?
Recovery to Begin in June-July …. ………… …………....……………..………….…………………………………………...….…………………..........................................14
IV. General Elections Result Will Enhance the Scope of Recovery
General Elections Result – A Huge Surprise……………………..……………………………………………….………………………………………….…….…….16
Positive Election Outcome to Provide Two-Stage Boost to Macro Likely .. …………………..……………………………………………….…………………………………17
V. Challenges for Quick Recovery to 8-9% GDP Growth
Challenge #1: High Level of Fiscal Deficit ……….……………………………………………………………….…………………………………………………….…….19
Challenge #2: Global Economic Outlook - Expect a Tepid Recovery……………………………….…………………………………………………….…….…….21
Challenge #3: Payback from the Excesses of Strong Credit Growth During Boom Years…….…………………………………………………….…….…….22
VI. Upside and Downside Risks to Our Estimates
Key Risk Factors: Global Risk Appetite and External Demand .…..…….……….….………………………………………………………......………………….……………..24
Macro Theme in Focus
Theme I: Expecting Progress in Addressing Key Macro Issues.........................................................………….…………...………………………………………………….26
Theme II: Exchange Rate: Bottomed Out…………………………………………...….…………………………............................................………….…………...…………30
Theme III: Balance of Payments – Rise in Capital Inflows to Drive Surplus…..….……………..............................................................………….…………...…………...31
Theme IV: Long-Term Growth Outlook – An Interplay of Three Macro Factors…..….……………………...............................................………….…………...………38
Facts and Figures………………………………………………..……………………..………………………………………….....………………..….......…...42
Macroeconomic Forecasts………………..……..……..……..……………….……………..……...………….…………..…………………………….……...61

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