HSBC Asia in 2017：Our multi-asset summary

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20170119-HSBC-ASIA_IN_2017：OUR_MULTI-ASSET_SUMMARY_-754038.pdf (564.1 KB, 需要: 2 个论坛币)

2017-1-19 22:27:28 上传

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       HSBC 1月19日报告。
　　A new year plus a new president entering the White House equals a lot of questions that need answering.We begin with an analysis of four themes likely to concentrate the minds of investors in 2017–inflation levels，export growth，the strong USD and politics–before providing a summary of the views of each asset class.Economics：The year should deliver steady，if uninspiring，growth.We believe some countries will shine，like the Philippines，India，and Indonesia，which carry less debt than others.China faces more challenges as the property sector starts to cool and credit growth needs to be reined in.FX：Asian currencies are set to weaken over the coming months as Trump-induced USD strength regains momentum.The silver lining is that in general they do not have the same vulnerabilities as a few years ago.We expect the USD to soften later in 2017；this would favour the INR and IDR.Meanwhile，we make five predictions about the RMB，which faces a challenging outlook this year.Credit：Asian credit spreads face a corrective phase rather than the start of a sustained bear market.The early part of 2017 is likely to be difficult but the path should become smoother by the end of 2Q，ushering in a period of healthy performance.Our strategy is to stay defensive with a 3.5yr modified duration against benchmark and gradually add risk/duration after the correction materialises in 1Q17.Rates：The result of the US election has led to a rise in the term premium in US Treasury yields and a bear steepening of yield curves across Asia Pacific.Together with a stronger US dollar against EM Asia currencies，these are conditions that warrant the shaving of duration for rates across the region in 2017.Equity Strategy：4Q16 was a real struggle but a slowdown in the rise of global bond yields could bring better news for Asia stocks.We see 10% upside potential for Asian equities in 2017e.Domestic demand drivers and structural themes should be key considerations for Asian equity portfolios.

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关键词：Summary multi Asset Summa Mary

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