摩根斯坦利：亚太地产行业研究报告2009年8月

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Table of Contents
1. Property Developers – Upside Risk is Rising: The Macro Backdrop ……………………………………………………………………………… 4
2. Property Developers – Upside Risk is Rising: How To Play This? ……………………………………………………………………………….5
3. Asia Pacific Property Developers – Detail Conviction Ideas ………………………………………………………………………………..7
4. Setting Macro Backdrop ………………………………………………………………………………..8
5. External Demand Recovering But Long Way Up To Reach Pre-crisis Levels ……………………………………………………………………….9
6. Cyclical Boost to Domestic Demand Is The Answer: Through Government Spending …………………………………………………………..10
7. Cyclical Boost to Domestic Demand Is The Answer: Through Loose Monetary Policy……………………………………………………………11
8. …Supporting Significant Recovery in Residential Investment and Private Consumption………………………………………………………...12
9. Low Household Debt to GDP in Emerging Asia: More Conviction to Policy Makers ………………………………………………………………13
10. Low Inflation Concerns, But Risk of Asset Prices Moving Into Bubble Zone Remains…………………………………………………………….14
11. AxJ Expected Policy Response (on Further Rise in Asset Prices): End of Easing, But Rate Hikes Are Some Time Away………………….15
12. Japan Experience: Loose Monetary Policy Did Support Revival in Domestic Demand in the Mid-1980s……………………………………….16
13. Japan Experience: Attempts to Boost Domestic Demand Inflated Asset Bubbles In The Late 1980s……………………………………………17
14. China …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..19
15. Hong Kong …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..26
16. India …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..32
17. Singapore …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..42
18. Taiwan …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..51
19. Australia …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...59

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