发帖
雷达卡
August investment strategy: From a short-term perspective, we see oil refining
shares as unattractive, but expect petrochemical shares to continue doing well, backed
by short covering by foreign investors. We note, however, that: 1) the refining industry
cycle appears to be bottoming out, while petrochemical share valuations are nearing
all-time highs; and 2) the petrochemical cycle appears to have topped out, with
companies' P/Bs near peak levels. We think it is premature to go underweight
petrochemical shares, believing September will be the time to begin adjusting portfolio
weightings.
􀁺 July market overview and August outlook
1) Crude oil—Prices to strengthen but be highly volatile: Oil price movements in
August will likely mimic market views of the economy, and with the market believing
the economy is moving off—rather than toward—a bottom, prices appear more likely
to rise than fall. Still, it remains early to be confident about the economy’s direction.
The optimism that lifted oil prices above USD70/bbl in early July did not last long, and
prices dipped below USD60/bbl after nine days. We expect prices to rise this month
but to be highly volatile as well.
2) Oil refining—Prices of kerosene and diesel to rebound, fuel oil to correct:
China’s Jul 29 decision to cut gasoline and diesel prices by CNY220/tonne
(USD32/tonne) should reduce utilization ratios at teapot refiners and increase direct
imports. The country’s imports of petroleum products, however, will likely fall when
Fujian Refining & Petrochemical brings a plant expansion on line in early August.
All in all, we do not anticipate a material rise in overall petroleum product prices in
August, with diesel prices rebounding to a limited degree and fuel oil prices
weakening.
3) Petrochemicals—Market bullish, but pessimism growing: The petrochemical
market remained bullish in July, but was led upward by just a few products. We
believe the market will turn downward in August and September, as new facilities in
the Middle East and China—capacity from which has yet to be reflected in the mix
due to repeated startup delays—have gone online recently or will soon.
Contents
August investment strategy ...................................................................................................................... 3
Technical analysis ..................................................................................................................................... 5
I. Oil
1. July market trends and August outlook .................................................................................................. 10
2. July market review ................................................................................................................................. 11
II. Refining
1. July market trends and August outlook .................................................................................................. 14
2. July market review ................................................................................................................................. 15
3. July corporate news ............................................................................................................................... 16
III. Petrochemicals
1. July market trends and August outlook .................................................................................................. 20
2. July market review (Platts) ...................................................................................................................... 21
3. July industry news—Middle East ........................................................................................................... 23
4. July industry news—Asia ........................................................................................................................ 24
5. July corporate news ............................................................................................................................... 27
V. Charts and tables ................................................................................................................................ 29
VI. Appendices
Financial sheets.......................................................................................................................................... 80
Macroeconomic outlook .............................................................................................................................. 84
京公网安备 11010802022788号
