元大京华：台湾石化行业研究报告2009年7月

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Stable oil price outlook
Severe oil price fluctuations unlikely: We expect the West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price to stabilize in 2H09 within a range of
US$60-75/barrel. We project 2009 and 2010 average oil prices of US$58
and US$65 per barrel, respectively (in line with consensus), owing to 1)
restrictions on oil trading speculation; 2) stable OPEC production quotas;
3) rising retail oil prices limiting demand; and 4) increased output from
Iraqi oil fields. Furthermore, oil demand will likely follow a recovery in the
global economy and we believe anticipated supply reductions from
alternative energy producers will limit oil price downside risk.
Reasons behind our stable oil price outlook
► Oil speculators face restrictions: US regulators are exploring placing
restrictions on oil speculators, often blamed for oil price volatility. We
believe any restrictions imposed will have a stabilizing effect on prices.
► OPEC maintains production quotas: OPEC decided on May 28 to keep
output quotas unchanged at 24.84 mn b/d (barrels per day). OPEC’s
president indicated on the same day that the current oil price level of
US$60/barrel was satisfactory; consequently, we expect OPEC’s oil
output to remain at its current levels for the remainder of 2009.
► Higher crude output from Iraq: Iraq has opened the bidding process
for its oil fields which may increase the crude oil output in Rumaila to
2.8 mn b/d. In our view this additional supply may keep oil prices
from running too high.
► China may face slowing demand: China has increased its retail oil
prices for the third time based on its floating oil pricing mechanism;
we believe rising ASPs will restrain retail oil demand in China.
► Limited downside for oil prices: As some oil and biofuel suppliers are
unprofitable at lower oil prices, we expect these producers to oppose
downside pressure on oil prices in the form of supply reductions.
Impact on petrochemical companies: We forecast stable oil prices will
benefit petrochemical names. In particular, we expect Formosa Plastics will
see higher earnings contributions from Formosa Petrochemical (6565 TT;
not rated) given that stable oil prices will improve its refining margins.

Table of contents
Overview ........................................................................................... 3
Oil price outlook................................................................................ 6
Petrochemicals: stable oil price impact......................................... 11
Formosa Plastics (1301 TT); BUY................................. 20
Valuation and recommendation...................................................... 21
Nan Ya Plastics (1303 TT); SELL.................................. 27
Valuation and recommendation...................................................... 28

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 石化行业 行业研究 Restrictions 研究报告 台湾 行业 石化 京华

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